India, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia stand out as the hottest countries for Swedish companies to invest in going forward.
However, there is a general decrease in optimism in the shadow of geopolitical tensions and protectionism.
Partly, this is due to the European economy still struggling. The other reason is that the trade war, primarily between the USA and China, is intensifying and developing in the wrong direction. This colours the picture of how international trade functions, says Jan Larsson, CEO of Business Sweden.
A majority of Swedish companies operating on the global market have become less optimistic about the business climate abroad compared to last year, shows Business Sweden's report "Global Business Climate Survey 2024", which is based on a survey of over 1,700 companies.
Overall, the prospects are still relatively good on most markets. 65 per cent of companies expect increased turnover next year, and nearly half plan to increase their global investments.
"The planets have aligned"
Many are looking increasingly towards India, the growth engine.
The planets have aligned for India. They have launched a large number of internal investment programmes, they have achieved internal stability and managed to navigate the geopolitical situation in such a way that no one doubts it anymore, says Jan Larsson.
The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, which have begun to transform their economies from fossil fuel dependence, also attract investors.
They will, of course, hold on to oil and gas as long as possible, but they understand that this story has an end. There is a pressure for change for the better and large amounts of capital.
On the other hand, interest in investing in economic giants like China and Germany is decreasing.
Positive underlying sentiment
The global economy has been reshaped over the past few years due to crises and wars – at the same time as climate change and digitalisation pose new demands. This is an uncertain time where hopes for a significant economic turnaround are being dashed by companies' concerns about increasing geopolitical tensions.
One should not paint the picture that there is a crisis in the global business climate. But one sees increasing tariffs and more protectionism. Swedish companies experience that governments and customers in their procurements are steering towards buying domestic alternatives, says Jan Larsson.
Representatives from over 1,700 Swedish companies have responded to questions about the local business climate on 24 foreign markets.
Some results:
Optimism is decreasing. In 2022, 51 per cent of companies thought the business climate was good or very good. Now the same figure is 37 per cent. 45 per cent have a neutral attitude.
65 per cent expect increased turnover next year, and 48 per cent plan to increase their global investments.
82 per cent experience that Sweden's brand is an advantage for business.
43 per cent highlight climate and environment as an important factor in customers' purchasing decisions.
70 per cent of companies were profitable last year. Only 13 per cent had a negative result.
Source: Global Business Climate Survey 2024
