Generally, we can say that there is a short-term, significant increase in the risk of copycats, which then subsides to a normal level, says Paul Gills, professor at University College London.
But he adds that events like the one in Örebro are very rare and emphasizes that it is not at all certain that we can expect copycat crimes, i.e. a deliberate copied crime.
The risk of copycats is also linked to the motive behind the crime, according to Robin Andersson Malmros, researcher at the University of Borås and the Segerstedt Institute at the University of Gothenburg.
If it is ideologically motivated, it is not as clear-cut.
If, on the other hand, it is a traditional school shooting, there is a culture surrounding this, he says.
Fear of firearms
School safety specialist Lena Ljungdahl notes that school crimes are generally to some extent characterized by perpetrators being inspired by each other.
We don't even need to look at the USA, it's enough to look at recent events in Sweden, she says.
She points to the school crimes that occurred in southern Sweden in 2021 and 2022 and which were "closely linked" to each other.
We can see that they have inspired each other, they mention each other, they have googled each other's crimes and previous well-known crimes, says Lena Ljungdahl, who is a former police officer and has been involved with CVE, among other things.
After the mass shooting in Örebro, she feels anxious about an escalation.
So far, it has been knives, stabbing and bludgeoning weapons. Here we have another type of weaponry – what does it do to the next school crime?
I fear that the risk increases if there is someone out there who is in a radicalization process and who gets the idea that "aha, it's firearms we're doing it with now".
Cannot be ruled out
She emphasizes that it does not mean that all schools should go into crisis mode.
Nothing indicates that we will have a school attack in the near future at all. But it cannot be ruled out considering what has happened.
We have a new headache to deal with, and with great curiosity and caution, monitor. That we have many weapons in circulation and in the wrong hands – we already know that. But it has not been a problem for schools to this extent, says Lena Ljungdahl.
