Robert Bergqvist is not surprised that the customs agreement between the USA and the EU ends up at 15 percent after Japan received a corresponding agreement and the United Kingdom received ten percent.
It is welcome that we are at the finish line. This uncertainty is negative for both companies and households. It reduces economic growth. But at the same time, I have difficulty seeing it as a victory. These are still high tariffs, he says.
Positive stock market response
He believes that the stock markets will react positively when they open on Monday.
But this trade war and these tariffs will have a negative impact, of course on the US economy but also on the world economy.
For the Swedish part, with almost nine percent direct export to the USA, the tariff fees in combination with the dollar losing value and the krona strengthening will mean a challenge, he believes.
It is a challenge for many companies that this happens at the same time.
Bergqvist also believes that the uncertainty will remain. Much is still unclear with the customs agreements, which he sees more as declarations of intent. The uncertainty surrounding economic policy will also remain as long as Trump is in the White House.
What one can hope for is that one lifts away some of the wet blanket. But you have not lifted away the wet blanket completely. It will remain due to the uncertainty.
Drives up inflation
Nordea's chief economist Annika Winsth thinks it is important to have a customs agreement with the USA to avoid an escalating conflict. At the same time, she believes it will have repercussions in the USA.
If it is true that it is 15 percent on most things, I think it sounds expensive and I think Swedish companies will need to pass it on to American customers and raise the price. So somewhere it should drive up inflation in the USA, she says.
Frida Bratt, savings economist at Nordnet, believes that the agreement means a relief for the EU in light of what Trump has threatened before.
With this agreement, one avoids an escalation in a trade conflict with much higher levels at stake. So these are levels that the EU can declare that they are satisfied with, she says.
