The 10th of February was the deadline for countries, or at least the 197 that have signed the Paris Agreement, to submit their updated climate plans, according to the UN. The so-called NDCs detail how countries will reduce their greenhouse gas emissions.
The UN's climate chief Simon Steill has called them "the century's most important policy document".
Before the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015, the temperature increase by the end of the century was estimated to be 3.7-4.8 degrees. Now it is estimated to be 2.4-2.6.
This year's NDCs will be the key to whether we maintain the pace over the next five years. They are working, but we need to keep the pace, says Stientje van Veldhoven, vice chair of the research organization WRI.
Awaiting Poland
However, so far only twelve countries have submitted their climate plans. Among the major emitters, the UK wants to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 81 percent by 2035.
The USA is another country that has submitted its plan, but it did so before Donald Trump took office as president, and it is seen as largely symbolic since the country is on its way out of the Paris Agreement.
Stientje van Veldhoven sees a risk that more countries will reduce their climate ambitions when the USA withdraws.
But the fact that the UK is setting an 80 percent target can also influence others, can't it?
Within the EU, which is submitting a joint NDC, they are waiting for Poland, the current presidency, to present its proposal.
"As soon as it arrives, we can also start negotiations within the EU. The Polish presidency has put the NDC on the agenda for the meeting with EU environment ministers on June 17", writes Sweden's climate ambassador Mattias Frumerie in an email.
China, the world's largest polluter and also the largest investor in renewable energy, is expected to present its plan during the second half of the year.
Seeing Risks
A tighter deadline is approaching when the UN General Assembly begins in September, so that the plans can be properly assessed ahead of the climate summit COP30 in Brazil in November.
The risk is that we won't have all the information on how countries as a group are delivering on the Paris Agreement's temperature target, says Niklas Hagelberg, program coordinator at the UN Environment Programme UNEP.
There is also a risk that countries that are late with their plans will also be late with their actions, according to him.
It's only 36 countries in the world where emissions are decreasing. So we're not on the right track, neither when it comes to the plans – these NDCs – nor when it comes to implementation, he says.
NDC is an abbreviation for Nationally Determined Contribution and is commonly referred to as a national climate plan in Swedish.
It is a document that describes concrete goals and measures for emission reductions to achieve the Paris Agreement's goal.
The plans are updated every five years and should be submitted by each country to the climate convention's secretariat.
The Paris Agreement is a global climate agreement that the world's countries agreed on in December 2015. It formally came into force in November 2016.
According to the agreement, global warming should be kept well below 2 degrees compared to pre-industrial levels, with the ambition to limit it to 1.5 degrees. This should primarily be achieved through reduced greenhouse gas emissions.
Source: UI.se
Countries that have so far submitted their climate plans (NDC). Goals for emission reductions by 2035 in parentheses.
Andorra (63 percent compared to 2005), Brazil (59-67 percent compared to 2005), Ecuador (7 percent compared to 2010), United Arab Emirates (47 percent compared to 2019), Marshall Islands (58 percent compared to 2010), New Zealand (51-55 percent compared to 2005), Saint Lucia (22 percent in the energy sector), Switzerland (65 percent compared to 1990), Singapore (45-50 million tons of CO2 equivalents), United Kingdom (81 percent compared to 1990 levels) and USA (61-65 percent compared to 2005).
Source: Climate Watch
