Extremely even. This is how three American professors summarize the US election.
It's the minimal changes from the 2020 election in critical electoral districts in swing states around the country. Generally, it looks like Trump has improved his share since the battle against Biden. And Harris has lost some ground in key locations, says Michael Wagner, professor of journalism and communication at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.
Somewhat surprisingly, Trump has won or is leading in all so-called swing states.
In such an even race, one could imagine that some states would go to one candidate and others to the other. But it looks like he's sweeping the swing states, says Wagner.
Various factors
The economy, the abortion issue, the candidates' personalities, and the view of a woman as president are issues that may have had an impact, he believes.
I don't think it's about a single thing. When a race is this even, it's probably ten to twelve different things that have moved 5,000 votes each in a certain direction.
The states that were expected to vote Republican have done so, and likewise, the Democrats have secured their expected states, notes Seth Masket, professor of political science at the University of Denver.
Notably, what we're seeing so far is in line with what the opinion polls have indicated. In all decided states, it's been predictable, says Shan.
Strong advantage for Trump
Christian Grose, professor of political science at the University of Southern California, says at 7 am Swedish time that Trump appears to be heading for victory.
It looks like it. I would say it's probably so. But after following the elections since 2000, I would prefer to have 98 percent of the votes counted, he says.
Grose notes that the US, like previous elections, is split and super-polarized, rather than experiencing any major voter shifts to the right.
I've become accustomed to the opinion polls being wrong after the last elections. The biggest surprise is that it's so even and that the country is as polarized as we expected.
Can be decisive
If Trump wins, he will avoid trouble with the Senate, where he will get support from Republican party friends. But Grose believes that the lower chamber, the House of Representatives, may fall to the Democrats, which would have complicated the work of enacting laws for a Republican president.
It will then be the only resistance to Trump if he is elected. A united Congress and presidency would mean that the Democrats have very little power in Washington DC, he says.
Wagner expects a chaotic presidency, surrounded by loyalists from last time who, according to him, were not very good at getting things done.
He has promised revenge against his enemies. He has a Supreme Court that has told him he cannot be punished for the behavior he engages in while in office. So I imagine we will have a president who is essentially unhindered, says he.
