The global economy is highly affected by the US and Trump's path forward, as well as Swedish small savers.
The question is therefore given, how will the market develop in the long term? A concern that has been raised is the reinforced trade tariffs that Trump has threatened, something that could hit Swedish companies.
Lars Söderfjell, stock manager at Ålandsbanken, is however doubtful about what will actually be implemented.
How much of the things Trump has talked about will really happen? Often, these proposals are watered down before they come to treatment.
Ulf Andersson, chief economist at DNB, is on the same line:
There is a difference between polemics and politics. It is not self-evident that everything Trump has said will be fully implemented. There are many forces within the American system that will not think it is so sensible, he says.
Tech Giants in Focus
Swedish households that save in global or index funds have not least benefited from the rise of American tech giants such as Google, Amazon, and Apple. However, it is difficult to predict how the development for the companies will be with Trump as president, notes Lars Söderfjell:
The tech sector in general has been associated with the Democrats' investment package. I find it hard to believe that the Trump administration will tear this apart, as they are quite protectionist otherwise.
Will Interest Rates be Affected?
Another immediate effect of the election outcome is the strengthening of the US dollar against the Swedish krona. This could in theory cause the Swedish Central Bank to need to be more restrictive with interest rate cuts, which in turn affects mortgage borrowers.
A weak krona increases the risk of importing inflation, and that is a danger we have seen with a Trump victory. Over time, it can play a role, says Ulf Andersson about future interest rate cuts.
And if Trump goes ahead with plans for higher tariffs, it means more expensive imported goods, which could be noticed by households.
Everyone is a loser over time with increased protectionism. If the proposals are implemented, they will likely result in corresponding countermeasures from Europe and China. It will negatively affect world trade, and Sweden will be a loser.
