The shooting at Donald Trump's campaign meeting can further escalate the atmosphere – and possibly affect the election result, says a political scientist.
I believe the Republicans will use this to increase support for Trump, says Professor Dennis Goldford.
Only hours after the tragic incident at the campaign meeting, where one spectator died and two were seriously injured, much remains unclear. And the perpetrator's motives play a major role in how the shooting can affect the ongoing presidential campaign.
"Some Republicans are already claiming that President Joe Biden's rhetoric is to blame for this shooting, without having any evidence for it," writes Chris Galdieri, a political scientist at Saint Anselm College in the state of New Hampshire, in an email to TT.
Conspiracy theories thrive
Dennis Goldford, professor emeritus of political science at Drake University in Des Moines, Iowa, is on the same track.
Already now, just a few hours after the shooting, I'm seeing various conspiracy theories on social media that the shooting was a bluff or that it was orchestrated by Democrats, he says.
Chris Galdieri believes that Donald Trump, during the Republican convention starting on Monday, will try to show himself as a strong and decisive leader after the incident – in the same style as he did when the pandemic broke out during his presidency.
"More ugly and brutal"
Dennis Goldford also believes that the incident will increase Republican support for Trump – but also that it can increase the divisions in an already polarized political landscape.
This risks making the entire election even more ugly and brutal than it has been so far, he says.
In the long run, it may even affect the election result by motivating more people to go to the polls and vote.
Voter turnout is all that matters in an election, says Dennis Goldford, adding:
Such an event could motivate and energize those who already lean towards Trump, which could increase voter turnout and help him.
Can affect Biden
At the same time, it could put a spanner in the works for the already divided Democrats – and increase the demands for Joe Biden to step down even more.
If the tone of the campaign becomes even harsher and angrier than it is now, some Democrats may ask themselves if Joe Biden is the right candidate in such an environment, or if they need someone tougher? says Dennis Goldford.
Those who already question whether he can win against Trump and believe that the Democrats need a younger and more energetic candidate may get further fuel for their argument.
During a campaign meeting in Pennsylvania on Saturday evening, several shots were fired at Donald Trump. The former president was hit in the right ear but is reported to be doing well under the circumstances.
The shooter was located on the roof of a nearby building.
One person in the audience was killed, and two others were seriously injured. The shooter is also dead, according to reports, after being shot by security services.
US President Joe Biden has condemned the incident in strong terms.
