In the Paris Agreement from 2015, the world's countries set a goal to not let the global average temperature increase more than 1.5 degrees from pre-industrial times, something that occurred in 2024. But for the Paris Agreement's goal to be met, the increase must remain below that level for a longer period, typically referred to as a 20- or 30-year period.
In two studies, published in the journal Nature Climate Change, researchers have tried to determine whether we have now entered such a longer period of higher temperatures. By analyzing climate data going back in time, they have investigated what happened previously when warm years occurred. The conclusion is that the times it has happened before, we were already in a longer period of warm years.
Based on this, it is likely that we are already at the beginning of a 20-year period with a higher average temperature and that the Paris Agreement's goal has already been exceeded.
The researchers behind the two studies have used different methods and reach slightly different results in their calculations. But they are entirely unanimous that swift and powerful measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are absolutely necessary.
