SwedenLivingWorld world_2_fill WorldBusiness BusinessSports sports-soccer SportsEntertainmentEntertain

The Iran Expert: "A Perfect Trap"

Iran carried out a comprehensive drone attack against Israel on Tuesday. An escalation that increases the risk of the war spreading, according to analysts.

» Updated: October 04 2024

» Published: October 01 2024

The Iran Expert: "A Perfect Trap"
Photo: Fredrik Sandberg/TT

After Israel cracked down on Hamas in Gaza, Iran risks losing its most important tool in the region, Hezbollah, and is faced with the choice of accepting it or doing something very drastic. Now they seem to have chosen the riskier path, says Aron Lund, Middle East analyst at the Total Defence Research Institute (FOI).

This is partly about showing their own supporters that they stand behind them, and partly about raising the stakes in a situation where Israel is acting as if they are not facing any risks.

For Iran, this could be useful if it gets the alarm bells ringing in Washington, which does not want a large-scale war, and also forces Israel to its knees before the USA. To handle an escalation, you need American help, and then you also have to listen to the USA's opinions.

"Escalation"

Rouzbeh Parsi, programme manager at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs' Middle East and North Africa programme:

From the Israeli perspective, this is a perfect trap. Either Iran reacts, and then you can turn to the USA. Or they don't, and then Israel can continue to pick off Hezbollah's leaders, he says.

What has probably happened is that in Tehran, those who insisted that something had to be done have won. They have meant that it is worth the risk that this could escalate.

There are plenty of hawks on both sides, emphasize both he and Aron Lund.

Both in Israel and Iran, there are many military personnel and politicians who believe that you always have to retaliate, and that pattern fuels an escalation spiral that doesn't really have an end until one side manages to take a step back without losing face, says Lund.

"Decisive days"

Isabell Schierenbeck, professor of political science at the University of Gothenburg, sees an increased risk that the war will escalate and spread.

Partly, it could become a direct confrontation between Iran and Israel. Now it's going to be very decisive moments and days ahead, and it's a lot about how Israel manages to defend itself against this attack, if civilians die or not, she says.

The political scientist and Iran expert Arvin Khoshnood expects that an escalation would mean that the USA is drawn into the conflict. Iran, he says, is walking a difficult tightrope to flex its muscles – without risking a large-scale war.

They know that Israel is militarily and economically stronger, while the regime in Tehran has a legitimacy crisis, and in the event of war, there is a risk that the people will use it to try to overthrow the regime.

Tags

TTT
By TTThis article has been altered and translated by Sweden Herald

More news

Israel's Controversial Gaza Plan: Annexation Proposal Sparks Debate
4 MIN READ

Israel's Controversial Gaza Plan: Annexation Proposal Sparks Debate

Fishing Dispute Threatens UK-EU Defense Cooperation
1 MIN READ

Fishing Dispute Threatens UK-EU Defense Cooperation

Family Rescued After 12 Hours on Crashed Plane Wing in Icy Alaska
2 MIN READ

Family Rescued After 12 Hours on Crashed Plane Wing in Icy Alaska

Trump suggests Putin may be stalling Ukraine peace efforts
1 MIN READ

Trump suggests Putin may be stalling Ukraine peace efforts

Vance's Greenland Visit Shifts Focus to Military Base, Easing Concerns
2 MIN READ

Vance's Greenland Visit Shifts Focus to Military Base, Easing Concerns

South Korea Battles Historic Wildfires: 18 Dead, Thousands Evacuated
1 MIN READ

South Korea Battles Historic Wildfires: 18 Dead, Thousands Evacuated

Waltz Owns Up to Military Chat Leak, Calls It Embarrassing
2 MIN READ

Waltz Owns Up to Military Chat Leak, Calls It Embarrassing

Protesters in Gaza Call for End to Conflict and Criticize Hamas
1 MIN READ

Protesters in Gaza Call for End to Conflict and Criticize Hamas

JD Vance Joins Wife Usha on Greenland Trip Amid US-Denmark Tensions
2 MIN READ

JD Vance Joins Wife Usha on Greenland Trip Amid US-Denmark Tensions

UN Reports Over 21,600 Syrians Flee to Lebanon After Violence
1 MIN READ

UN Reports Over 21,600 Syrians Flee to Lebanon After Violence

Prime Minister Kristersson Joins Macron's Ukraine Talks in Paris
1 MIN READ

Prime Minister Kristersson Joins Macron's Ukraine Talks in Paris

US Officials Discuss Yemen Strike in Leaked Chat with Journalist
3 MIN READ

US Officials Discuss Yemen Strike in Leaked Chat with Journalist

Kristersson Calls Turkey's Arrest of Erdogan Rival Very Alarming
1 MIN READ

Kristersson Calls Turkey's Arrest of Erdogan Rival Very Alarming

Burundi President Accuses Rwanda of Plotting Attack, Calls for Dialogue
1 MIN READ

Burundi President Accuses Rwanda of Plotting Attack, Calls for Dialogue

US Coast Guard Joins Arctic Exercise in Northern Norway
1 MIN READ

US Coast Guard Joins Arctic Exercise in Northern Norway

Pope's Doctor Faced Tough Choice During Critical Health Crisis
2 MIN READ

Pope's Doctor Faced Tough Choice During Critical Health Crisis

Russia Launches Drone Assaults on Ukraine as Talks Continue in Saudi Arabia
1 MIN READ

Russia Launches Drone Assaults on Ukraine as Talks Continue in Saudi Arabia

Doctors Without Borders Reports Brutal Attacks on Children in Congo
3 MIN READ

Doctors Without Borders Reports Brutal Attacks on Children in Congo

Protests Surge in Istanbul Over Mayor Imamoglu's Imprisonment
2 MIN READ

Protests Surge in Istanbul Over Mayor Imamoglu's Imprisonment

23 Illegally Stripped of Danish Citizenship Due to Law Misinterpretation
1 MIN READ

23 Illegally Stripped of Danish Citizenship Due to Law Misinterpretation

Hundreds Dead in Sudan Market Air Raid, Rights Group Reports
2 MIN READ

Hundreds Dead in Sudan Market Air Raid, Rights Group Reports

Japan Court Orders Shutdown of Moon Sect Operations
2 MIN READ

Japan Court Orders Shutdown of Moon Sect Operations

Israeli Strikes on Gaza Claim Over 20 Lives Overnight
1 MIN READ

Israeli Strikes on Gaza Claim Over 20 Lives Overnight

Motorcyclist Tragically Killed in South Korea Sinkhole Near Seoul
1 MIN READ

Motorcyclist Tragically Killed in South Korea Sinkhole Near Seoul

Kremlin Ties Black Sea Truce to Lifting US Sanctions on Agriculture
2 MIN READ

Kremlin Ties Black Sea Truce to Lifting US Sanctions on Agriculture

EU Membership Support Reaches Record High in Latest Poll
1 MIN READ

EU Membership Support Reaches Record High in Latest Poll

EU Faces Limited Options as Tensions Rise in Turkey
2 MIN READ

EU Faces Limited Options as Tensions Rise in Turkey

Ex-RAF Member Daniela Klette Faces Trial After 30 Years on the Run
3 MIN READ

Ex-RAF Member Daniela Klette Faces Trial After 30 Years on the Run

Israel Strikes Syria: Multiple Fatalities Reported in Latest Attacks
2 MIN READ

Israel Strikes Syria: Multiple Fatalities Reported in Latest Attacks

Trump Dismisses Military Chat Leak as Minor Blunder
3 MIN READ

Trump Dismisses Military Chat Leak as Minor Blunder

German Nurse on Trial for Allegedly Murdering Patients to Ease Workload
1 MIN READ

German Nurse on Trial for Allegedly Murdering Patients to Ease Workload

Trump Calls for Removal of 'Distorted' Portrait in Colorado Capitol
1 MIN READ

Trump Calls for Removal of 'Distorted' Portrait in Colorado Capitol

Artillery Attack on Sudan Mosque Leaves Five Dead in Khartum
1 MIN READ

Artillery Attack on Sudan Mosque Leaves Five Dead in Khartum

Indian Court Rules Watching Porn Not Grounds for Divorce
1 MIN READ

Indian Court Rules Watching Porn Not Grounds for Divorce

American Journalist Accidentally Receives US Military Plans for Yemen Attack
3 MIN READ

American Journalist Accidentally Receives US Military Plans for Yemen Attack

UN Scales Back Gaza Operations Following Headquarters Incident
1 MIN READ

UN Scales Back Gaza Operations Following Headquarters Incident

South Sudan Faces Worst Cholera Outbreak in Two Decades
1 MIN READ

South Sudan Faces Worst Cholera Outbreak in Two Decades

Cyberattack Disrupts Ukraine's Railway Booking System
1 MIN READ

Cyberattack Disrupts Ukraine's Railway Booking System

Over 60 Dead in Latest Israeli Airstrikes on Gaza, Red Cross Hit
2 MIN READ

Over 60 Dead in Latest Israeli Airstrikes on Gaza, Red Cross Hit

Ex-Danish Minister Charged with Possession of Child Abuse Images
1 MIN READ

Ex-Danish Minister Charged with Possession of Child Abuse Images