In Sweden, the shift from being a priority target to being a "legitimate" target is connected to Hamas' full-scale attack on Israel, which led to violent Islamist extremists shifting their focus.
However, NCT emphasizes that there are still uncertainties.
We would like to see this as a circumstance that persists, and not just because the spotlight has shifted elsewhere, says Ahn-Za Hagström.
The greatest terrorist threat to Sweden in 2025 is still considered to come from lone violent Islamist extremists or right-wing extremists who attack using simple means such as vehicles, knives, or firearms.
Known Islamist Account
Recently, a Salafist account, which was behind the LVU campaign, was reported to have taken notice of TV4's audio analysis, which claims that someone shouted "You should leave Europe" during the mass shooting in Örebro, according to SVT.
Are you worried that this will be picked up by such an actor?
This is something the Security Police are following, of course, in terms of intent and capability, if this could influence someone's intent, says Hagström.
NCT notes that Sweden is still seen as Islamophobic, and that threats from violent Islamist extremists can flare up again.
The perpetrator in Örebro is also reported to have been praised in right-wing extremist videos on TikTok. However, the motive for the mass shooting is still unknown.
For a crime to be investigated as a terrorist offense, several requirements must be met, according to the NCT chief. The perpetrator's intent must have been to instill fear in a population or group, or to seriously harm the state of Sweden.
This is an intent that is rarely known when the crime is committed or immediately after.
She emphasizes that it is a question for the prosecutor.
But looking back at other events, there has often been some kind of statement of intent or community where the person has been, virtually or in the real world, which has indicated different types of intentions.
Foreign Power
Despite the propaganda decreasing, the terrorist threat level remains at four on the five-point scale. One contributing factor is that foreign powers, such as Russia and Iran, are considered willing to commit acts that could be classified as terrorist offenses.
Has foreign power become a greater threat in terms of terrorism than before?
It's difficult to compare. We can go back to the 1970s and see that Sweden was really an arena for other countries' terrorist actions then. But several circumstances in recent years have led us to highlight this as a phenomenon, says Hagström.
The terrorist threat level remains at a high level, four on the five-point scale, following a decision by the Security Police chief in January.
Sweden has shifted from being a priority target for Islamist terrorist organizations to being a "legitimate" target again.
The main terrorist threat to Sweden in 2025 comes from lone violent Islamist extremists or right-wing extremists.
Foreign power has maintained an interest in using proxies to commit violent acts in Sweden that could be classified as terrorist offenses. This can include everything from sabotage to attacks on Israeli and Jewish interests.
The trend of more underage actors continues.
Source: NCT (a permanent working group with personnel from FRA, Must, and Säpo)
