Prime Minister Simon Harris and his conservative Fine Gael receive 21 percent in the survey published by the public service company RTÉ and the newspaper The Irish Times.
The party's largest coalition partner, the right-liberal Fianna Fáil, receives 19.5 percent, and a new coalition government for the next four years is likely.
However, the left-nationalist Sinn Féin, with 21.1 percent, is the largest party by a narrow margin and will seek alternative solutions to a left-wing government.
Many Independents
Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald opened up for cooperation with, among others, Labour and Social Democrats to form a left-wing government. However, the two parties have also opened up for cooperation with the right-wing coalition.
According to RTÉ, the election outcome may also be decided by the many independent candidates who want to enter the parliament, Dáil – a chamber that, with this year's election, will grow by 14 seats to 174 representatives from 43 constituencies.
Party Leader Gives Birth
The official vote count will begin on Saturday. In Ireland's electoral system, voters can rank candidates in first, second, and third choices, which complicates the vote count and takes longer than usual in Western elections.
One winner is already clear, however. Early on election day, Social Democrats leader Holly Cairns gave birth to her first child, a daughter.
According to RTÉ, only just over 50 percent of the 3.6 million registered voters cast their votes, slightly fewer than in the 2020 election.
