About 20 people in the French National Rally (RN) leadership are awaiting their verdict on Monday in a high-profile trial in Paris for fraud with EU funds.
There will be a before and an after, says a worried RN member to the news site Politico's French news brief.
In the balance lies primarily the political future of Marine Le Pen, runner-up in the presidential elections of 2017 and 2022 and top favorite ahead of the 2027 election.
As she may not be allowed to stand.
Fines and Probation
The prosecutors are seeking five years' imprisonment, with three years suspended and two with an electronic tag. Additionally, fines equivalent to 3.2 million kronor and – perhaps most importantly – a five-year ban on running for public office.
The prosecutor's intention is to prevent the French people from voting for the one they want, she herself fumed when the request was presented in November.
The charges concern money that National Rally received from 2004-16 as EU grants to pay its assistants in the EU Parliament. According to the prosecutors, however, the assistants instead worked nationally for the party on entirely different matters.
Worked on Something Else
Le Pen has consistently maintained her innocence. But the evidence is at times devastating.
One of the assistants is said to have asked in a text message if it was possible to meet the member they formally worked for – several months after being hired.
Another had, during eight months of work, exchanged only a single message with their member. A third is said to have actually functioned as a bodyguard and chauffeur for party founder Jean-Marie Le Pen.
Bardella Takes Over?
Marine Le Pen is likely to appeal a potential conviction, but risks being surrounded by uncertainty and doubt over the next few years.
At the same time, both she and the party may still benefit in terms of support, if she manages to portray herself as a martyr stopped more for political than judicial reasons.
National Rally can also lean on its formal party leader, the young and increasingly popular Jordan Bardella.
But whether the 29-year-old is already ripe for a presidential election is uncertain.
For Bardella, the plan is currently to become prime minister. To clear a presidential election requires experience, a cohesive team. It's something entirely different, says one of Le Pen's close advisors to Politico.
Marine Le Pen (born 1968) is the group leader of National Rally's members in the French parliament since 2022. Previously, she was also party leader since 2011, when she succeeded her father and party founder Jean-Marie Le Pen (1928-2025).
Marine Le Pen was an EU Parliament member 2004-17 and has been sitting in the French parliament since 2017.
She came third in the presidential election of 2012 and second in 2017 and 2022. In both the latter, she lost in a decisive round to current President Emmanuel Macron with 66 percent against 34, respectively 59 against 41.
