+ The Economy
Trade with the USA may decrease with Donald Trump as president. He has promised to raise tariffs, which according to a calculation from the Stockholm Chamber of Commerce could mean that 80 billion kronor of the total 562 billion kronor that Swedish trade with the USA amounted to last year will disappear.
Trump has been very clear about raising tariffs against the rest of the world by up to 20 percent and against China by 60 percent. He is doing this to protect American jobs and to finance tax cuts. But it risks leading to negative consequences for an export-dependent country like Sweden if the USA moves in a more protectionist direction, says Carl Bergkvist, chief economist at the Stockholm Chamber of Commerce to TT.
The Swedish Central Bank governor Erik Thedéen has expressed concern that raised tariffs may affect Swedish inflation.
At the same time, small savers who have invested in stocks or funds may see a rise in value. The Stockholm Stock Exchange rose initially on Wednesday before turning and the New York Stock Exchange opened clearly upwards.
+ Security
The NATO issue has been a hot topic for Donald Trump for a long time. He has been clear that member countries "must pay their bills" to be able to count on the USA's support, and he has also threatened to leave the military alliance. Björn Ottosson, security policy analyst at the Total Defense Research Institute (FOI), does not believe he will follow through on this.
But Europe will need to take on greater responsibility for its security. If the USA reduces its presence in Europe, it could lead to Russia advancing its positions. Russia testing NATO, which could affect Sweden, he says to TT.
Trump has also said that he can stop the war in Ukraine within 24 hours – and that issue is important for Sweden's security situation.
Wanting to get a quick end sends the signal that you are undermining the space for negotiation, it would put enormous pressure on Ukraine to make concessions to Russia and it would be a major victory for Russia, says Ottosson.
+ The Climate
Last time Donald Trump was president, he took the USA out of the Paris Agreement, and he has promised to do so again. Such a decision would have consequences for many, not just for Sweden.
If the rest of the world does not manage to mobilize and fill the gap that arises after the USA, it will be difficult to maintain the drive in global climate change, says Mathias Fridahl, expert on climate policy and lecturer at Linköping University, to TT.
+ Rhetoric
Trump's rhetoric differs significantly from other world politicians, and his way of expressing himself has already shifted the boundaries of what is acceptable to say in public. Even in Sweden. So it will continue, believes Lena Lid Falkman, lecturer at Karlstad University who researches communication, among other things.
What is said in public takes inspiration from. I believe the boundaries will be shifted further. Then it will not go as far as in the USA, because we have a different type of society here. But it is clear that his way of communicating works, that it is a recipe for success. I believe we will see more of it in political contexts, she says to TT.
Elinor Falkman is an expert on rhetoric and communication. She says to TT that Trump's distrust of the media may also spill over into Swedish society.
He talks about not being able to trust the media. It risks leading to everything being questioned, even here, she says.
