"Nordea's forecast is that the interest rate will not change significantly in the near future", writes Nordea's chief economist Annika Winsth in a fresh forecast.
The colleagues at the major bank SEB make the same assessment, with a forecast of an interest rate that remains at 2.25 percent at least until the end of 2026 – which, incidentally, is the latest bid from the Swedish Central Bank's board of directors regarding the outlook for the interest rate going forward.
"We're not there yet"
Mattias Persson, chief economist at Swedbank, sees a decrease in the interest rate to 2.00 percent in September ahead of him. But he does not rule out that the market makes a correct assessment and considers including a decrease in the forecast he is working on until May 6.
Among Handelsbanken's economists, the latest forecast is that there will be three decreases this year – in June, August, and September – down to 1.50 percent in interest rate.
But Annika Winsth at Nordea makes a completely different assessment.
"If the Swedish Central Bank lowers the interest rate again, it's because the economy is slowing down more clearly. We're not there yet, and inflation is expected to remain clearly above the inflation target all the way to the end of this year", she writes in her interest rate forecast.
"Lower tariffs may be in the cards"
She notes that lower market interest rates in recent times have contributed to several mortgage banks lowering interest rates on loans with longer binding periods.
"It's wise to be humble, but for the time being, there's nothing that directly suggests they will fall more. On the contrary, it seems that the conditions for negotiations and lower tariffs may be in the cards. It's not ruled out that we have the worst behind us, as the consequences for the American economy become increasingly apparent", writes Winsth.
The next interest rate announcement from the Swedish Central Bank will come on May 8.
Should market actors be right – and there are two decreases this year to an interest rate of 1.75 percent – this usually pushes down interest rates on mortgages with so-called floating interest rates.
The effects on the household budget for heavily indebted households can be significant.
If the interest rate for a household with a mortgage of three million kronor were to be lowered by 0.50 percentage points, it would reduce the interest cost by 15,000 kronor per year or 1,250 kronor per month – if you disregard the effects of interest deductions.
