I am absolutely certain that there will be protests today or tomorrow, but the question is how they will unfold, and if they will be violent. Georgia has a long tradition of protests – but it is no guarantee for change, she says.
Katrine Bendtsen Gotfredsen is a university lecturer in Caucasus studies at Malmö University and has researched political change in Georgia. She is currently on site in the country, just outside the capital Tbilisi.
On election day, there have been reports of electoral fraud and voters being threatened and attacked.
From what I have heard, there is no doubt about electoral fraud. There have been various forms of intimidation and people having multiple ballots per person.
People have also gone around and voted at multiple locations. Some things are relatively easy to prove as fraud for election observers, while others become more difficult.
Both election winners
In the evening of the election day, both the ruling party Georgian Dream and the opposition declared themselves winners. A sign of the extremely polarized society, according to Bendtsen Gotfredsen.
There is an extremely polarized media image and an extremely polarized population. There is also a constant stream of disinformation, making it extremely difficult to get a clear picture of the situation.
Yesterday, when the election results started coming in, I sat and flipped between two opposition TV channels. In between, I watched the state-controlled news channel Imedi. There, the discussions and exit polls were completely different. It's parallel realities, she says.
Russian influence
The election has been described as a fateful choice, where the outcome is expected to determine whether the country is steered closer to the EU or Russia. Georgia has had candidate status for EU membership since the end of 2023, but it may now be paused, believes Bendtsen Gotfredsen.
The ruling party Georgian Dream is described as pro-Russian and is led by oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili, who made his fortune in the chaos following the fall of the Soviet Union. He has also been accused of having ties to Vladimir Putin.
Georgian Dream has run a strong propaganda campaign that the opposition, together with the West, has tried to open a new front in the Ukraine war. There is a legitimate concern, which is not new but has been politically exploited, that they are at war again.
