Already in 2015, an attempt was made in Turkey to solve what one calls the "Kurdish issue". Now a new attempt is being made, and there are several reasons why it is happening right now, according to former ambassador to Turkey Michael Sahlin.
–The regime in Turkey has again developed a strong interest in trying to make an agreement with the Kurds because they need votes from the Kurdish side to be able to stay in power. Erdogan's mandate expires in 2028, and then Erdogan and his people know that they must make a deal with the Kurds.
Weakened PKK
There are no concrete promises of concessions to the PKK for the organization – which, among other things, has been terrorist-stamped by the USA, EU, and Turkey – to lay down its arms. But the PKK is substantially militarily weakened and makes a pessimistic assessment of the possibility of getting anywhere with military means, according to Sahlin.
–One then sees that there is only one party that one could make a deal with: and that is the dominant AKP (Erdogan's party).
The PKK has also been faced with a changed world around them. In the USA, Trump is sitting, whom they do not have support from, and in Syria, a new regime has taken place that wants to incorporate Kurds into a unified government. Thus, the hope of an independent, PKK-near Kurdistan in northeastern Syria disappears.
All of this is negative factors and, in addition, PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan personally wants to get out of his prison sentence, says Sahlin.
Symbolic value
The PKK has, in the face of a peace process, demanded that Öcalan be released, and that former combatants receive amnesty in Turkey and can work politically within a democratic structure.
Michael Sahlin is skeptical that Turkey will meet the demands.
–It has such an enormous symbolic value. Öcalan has been regarded as a baby murderer – the entire Turkish nationalism has been built on him as a monster figure. To then completely release him, I think will be very difficult. But it may be about giving him more freedom, maybe even house arrest.
Long process
A general amnesty for the PKK, one of many hated organizations by Turks, he does not consider likely either.
–But something must Erdogan offer. So it's a very tricky balancing act. And it may be a very long process, it can take several years before it goes particularly far. Everything depends on the connection to the development in Syria, and the democratization trend in Turkey - if it exists.
