Tariffs are bad for a country like Sweden, states Anna Breman.
But she thinks Sweden is well-prepared for the current global economic turmoil following the Trump administration's tariff shock on April 2.
"Fine real wage increases"
Households have received real wage increases for some time and have secured "fine real wage increases" for a while ahead, according to her assessment. She also notes positive signs on the labor market, with increased employment.
And we know that Swedish companies are extremely skilled at finding new markets, even when it's turbulent in the surrounding world. It will look a bit weak now, at the beginning of the year. But in the long term, we have a very strong faith in the Swedish economy, says Breman.
The conditions for Sweden to get through this global turbulence are good, she adds.
At the same time, she expects downward pressure on inflation, due to a slowdown in global market prices for some food items, combined with the krona strengthening during the year so far.
In the long run, we should not see food prices continuing to rise so much. But it's an uncertainty factor and can be affected by very much, says Breman.
The Trump administration's tariffs do not need to have "huge effects on Sweden in the short term" – but it's negative for the Swedish economy. The big question is the uncertainty and how long it will last, according to Breman.
New data can affect the interest rate decision
The next interest rate announcement from the Swedish Central Bank will be on May 8. It will be delivered without a new monetary policy report, and thus without new forecasts for the Swedish economy.
But new data will be released that can affect the interest rate decision, including a business cycle barometer from KI, the Swedish Central Bank's corporate survey, and inflation statistics.
How the recent weeks' turbulence will affect the GDP figures remains to be seen.
Generally, it's clear that this is not good. I would still expect to see some worse figures in the near future, says Breman.
The repo rate is currently at 2.25 percent, and the interest rate path – the forecast for the repo rate – remained unchanged at 2.25 percent in the first quarter of 2028.
Actors on the interest rate market have recently positioned themselves in anticipation of what they believe may be one or two rate cuts this year – which would bring the repo rate down to 1.75-2.00 percent.
