One of the biggest questions surrounding Ukraine's future right now is security guarantees in the form of military forces in the event of a ceasefire.
But how a Swedish troop to Ukraine would look like, the government has not said anything about. According to the Defense Forces, they have not received any assignment to investigate what could be sent.
According to Magnus Christiansson, a military expert at the Defense University, Sweden's capacity is limited.
Probably, one would have to prioritize away the Baltic Sea in some sense to be able to prioritize Ukraine. And that applies to all resources, he says.
"Going full speed"
Recently, Sweden sent 550 soldiers in a reduced battalion to Latvia to participate in NATO's deterrence on the eastern border. It may need to be withdrawn if Swedish soldiers are sent to Ukraine, according to Christiansson.
If it's going to be something that's tangible here and now, a unit that's set up and can get a marching order, then it's the force that I'll think of most immediately, he says.
He notes at the same time that the UK and France's plan for a peacekeeping force primarily focuses on air and sea defense, while ground forces are to be kept to a minimum. But even the Swedish Navy and Air Force are largely tied up, according to Christiansson.
My impression is that the Air Force is going full speed when it comes to operations and missions in the Baltic Sea.
He highlights that Sweden has also taken on the task of contributing up to 250 officers to NATO's command structures.
How it's going to work together with taking on a new responsibility in Ukraine, that's a question mark.
Setting a trap
If there is a European peacekeeping force in Ukraine, it is far from certain today. To make it work, support from the USA is considered crucial.
Christiansson sees it as more likely that there will be a ceasefire without American backing.
I can imagine that the Russians are setting a trap. That is, they agree to let the Europeans park somewhere in Ukraine, and then they drain large parts of the alliance's defense. Without American security guarantees, you're sitting in a trap.
Another variant is that there will be no ceasefire at all and that the USA ends its support to Ukraine.
Then Europe won't be affected, since Europe doesn't have any responsibility on the ground then, but it's goodbye to Ukraine.
France and the UK are leading the work on creating a new peacekeeping force for Ukraine.
Officials have said that it will consist of fewer than 30,000 soldiers and focus on air and sea defense. Ground forces are to be kept to a minimum and not placed near the front line in eastern Ukraine.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyj has previously demanded a deterrent force of 100,000-150,000 soldiers, with American participation.
Several countries have said no to contributing troops. Including Poland, Bulgaria, Slovakia, and Croatia. Germany has said it's too early to take a stance.
Source: The Guardian, Bloomberg, Europaportalen
