In recent years, Swedish energy production has increased significantly, more than consumption has increased, which has led to higher electricity exports and lower electricity prices. Now a trend break is seen.
Especially the wind power industry has slowed down as electricity prices have fallen, according to Svenska Kraftnät's annual market analysis, which extends five years ahead. But also the assumed increased electricity consumption is being pushed forward in time since several electricity-intensive industries have become more cautious in their investments.
But it's mainly about time. In the short term, industries in northern Norrland are expected to need more electricity. This changes the flows, "quite significantly", according to Daniel Gustafsson, department head at Svenska Kraftnät.
Review investments
The authority's investments in new power grids may therefore need to be examined more closely to see if they hold. The electricity flows from north to south are not as clear-cut going forward.
It's still obvious, but not as obvious. The social benefit (of building cables that take electricity from north to south) is not as convincing, says Daniel Gustafsson.
More electricity usage in the north is also expected to increase electricity prices in Norrland.
It's almost a doubling of the price picture. But it's from relatively low levels, says Gustafsson, who notes that the uncertainty in this assessment is high.
More wind and sun pressure
In southern Sweden (electricity area 4), prices are expected to fall by around ten percent, as a yearly average, due to falling prices on the continent as wind and solar power are built out even more, according to the authority's analysis.
This despite the fact that the electricity deficit in the southern part of the country is expected to become even larger in coming years when more electricity will be needed in the north.
Especially electricity area 4 will become even more dependent on imports from other areas or imports from other countries, says Daniel Gustafsson.
Overall, the assessment is that today's price differences between north and south will be evened out.
