Today, Minister of Defense Pål Jonsson will receive the chief of Thailand's air force, ACM, Punpakdee Pattanakul. Thailand is in the middle of negotiations to buy more Gripen planes from Saab.
In late July, the border conflict between Thailand and Cambodia flared up, with five days of intense fighting that claimed at least 35 lives. On July 28, the countries agreed on a ceasefire. During the fighting, Thailand carried out several air strikes with Gripen.
The negotiations may continue for several years and be affected by the development of events.
If it becomes a full-scale or larger war – or if Thailand invades Cambodia and takes over areas – then I am convinced that this deal would be paused, and possibly also cancelled, says Martin Lundmark, lecturer in defense systems at the Defense University.
Criteria
There are certain criteria for defense exports to be allowed, including from a defense and security policy perspective. It is the Inspectorate for Strategic Products (ISP) that first examines the issue. In the end, it is a government decision where the government can either support the ISP – or make a different assessment.
In 2018, the export legislation for war materials was tightened, with a new requirement to consider – the democracy criterion. In 2011, when the last deal was made, Thailand was considered a country that met the then prevailing requirements. That Thailand now meets the requirements for democracy can be questioned, Lundmark believes.
It is undoubtedly a less stable country and less democratic than it was in 2011, he says.
No contract
ISP writes in an email to TT that they cannot comment on individual cases or assessments of specific recipient countries due to secrecy. In general, ISP should be notified four weeks before "a binding offer may be made for the sale of war materials to anyone abroad". Then ISP examines whether the offer may be made or not.
"Negotiating or entering into a contract requires no further approval from ISP", they write further. The next step in the process is to "obtain permission to export the war material in question from Sweden". This often happens several years after the contract is signed.
Saab themselves have previously announced that the company "has not currently signed any contract or received any order regarding Gripen E/F" with Thailand.
