In late January 2025, 381,000 people, or 7.2 percent of the workforce, were registered as unemployed with the country's employment agencies. This can be compared to 6.8 percent during the same period last year.
It is primarily household consumption that has not taken off in the way we and other analysts believed, which means that the recovery in the economy and the labor market will be more protracted, says Eva Samakovlis.
Generally, unemployment tends to be high in January, since many employments and some educations expire at the turn of the year.
Increasing broadly
Unemployment is increasing broadly across all groups, according to the Employment Agency's figures. Initially, industries related to households' reduced consumption were affected.
In line with the prolonged and deepened recession, it has had an impact on more industries and affected broader groups. It is both women and men, young and old, native-born and foreign-born who have been affected, says Samakovlis.
Even long-term unemployed are increasing, with nearly 152,000 having been without a job for 12 months or more. This is over 11,000 more than a year ago. This is particularly serious and worrying, according to Samakovlis.
There is a risk that long-term unemployment will persist. The longer you are unemployed, the harder it is to return to the labor market.
The number of registered individuals who started a job did increase, however, with around 2,000 people compared to the same period last year.
Brightening ahead
In January, 5,200 people were notified of layoffs, which is slightly higher than the same period last year. The monthly average is usually between 4,000 and 5,000 notifications.
But the turnaround is approaching. The Employment Agency estimates that unemployment will decrease gradually as the economy strengthens.
We still see a brightening ahead and our assessment is that unemployment will stop increasing during the spring to begin decreasing during the autumn, says Samakovlis.
