The Christian Democrats CDU/CSU's leader Friedrich Merz is likely to become Germany's next Chancellor. But first, there will be government formation: probably a repeat of a previous common setup in Germany, a grand coalition between two parties.
The far-right party AFD is excluded from the negotiations, says Thomas Sommerer, professor of political science at the University of Potsdam.
Mathematically, AFD could also join a coalition with CDU, but CDU has ruled it out, and there would be no support for it in society.
Can Sell Themselves Expensively
So, in reality, it's only the social democratic SPD that is a possible coalition partner. This means that there may be conditions for a relatively simple government formation, says he.
But maybe the Social Democrats will try to sell themselves expensively since they are the only alternative.
Here, SPD can likely push for issues related to social justice, such as minimum wages and retirement age, says Ann-Kristin Kölln, professor of political science at the University of Gothenburg.
The parties have different views on economy and financial policy.
SPD wants to lift the debt ceiling and invest more, CDU wants to be fiscally very restrictive, says Ann-Kristin Kölln.
The new government will quickly take on a great responsibility, but there is a risk that it will not become the stable government that Germany needs.
It may rather become a fairly fragile coalition, since the two parties do not agree on important issues, says she.
Opportunity for a New Start?
In the previous government, there were many different opinions – and also divisions within Scholz's own party – regarding, among other things, how to approach Russia.
It has been said that the relationship between Macron and Scholz has been very complicated, says Thomas Sommerer.
Now there is hope that Merz and Macron, who are both conservative and more moderate politicians, can have a better consensus, or at least an opportunity for a new start.
Ann-Kristin Kölln believes that Germany with Merz at the helm will now take a larger place.
He has tried to pressure Scholz to be more leading in Europe and NATO. So if he now gets the chance, I hope he will do just that.
