German Expert: Electric Car Success Goes via China

It may take several years to turn the downward spiral for Europe's electric car industry, warns German industry guru Ferdinand Dudenhöffer. The road to success goes via China, according to the professor.

» Updated: October 07 2024

» Published: September 30 2024

German Expert: Electric Car Success Goes via China
Photo: Ng Han Guan AP/TT

The German automotive industry is on its knees, and electrification is starting to look like an existential crisis for large parts of the industry across Europe.

I think it will take several years – maybe three, four years – to turn the trend around, says Ferdinand Dudenhöffer, director of the CAR institute in Bochum, Germany, to TT.

"Then you have to go to China"

Much is at stake. There is a risk that European players will be knocked out.

It's a risk. The solution to this is to get close to China, he says.

The scale is in China, and if you want to be competitive in the car market, you need to have this. Then you have to go to China, he adds.

The strategy is no miracle cure. And it's already obvious to many players. The German automotive industry has over 50 percent of its sales in China today. And Gothenburg-based Volvo Cars, together with Polestar, is part of the Chinese automotive empire Geely.

But investments in China need to increase, and European car manufacturers need to regain market shares there, believes Dudenhöffer.

This applies not only to electrification but also to the development of software and autonomous systems. The Chinese are making great progress in these areas as well, he says.

Low costs, dynamic companies, and access to user data are other advantages in China, according to the professor.

China will dominate the car market for the next twenty years, says Dudenhöffer.

And in just ten years, he expects China to be a larger car market than the US and Europe combined.

European car manufacturers can use China to catch up with Tesla and BYD and build up their competitiveness.

Questions whether Northvolt will survive

When it comes to battery manufacturer Northvolt, the professor sees major risks.

There are strong Chinese battery manufacturers – and South Korean, like Samsung. They have very stable production lines and have already started making large investments in next-generation electric vehicle batteries.

Northvolt and European battery manufacturers are focusing on existing technology.

An unstable production process and quality problems characterize Northvolt, according to Dudenhöffer.

Northvolt is in a difficult situation. The next two or three years will show whether they will survive in the future. It looks very tough.

And even if Northvolt resolves acute production problems, the risks are great.

How will they compete with the Chinese, who have all the scale advantages in place? That's the big question. And it's hard to answer.

Electric vehicle sales in the EU have stalled, according to new car registrations compiled by the industry organization ACEA. The share of battery-electric vehicles in August was down to 14.4 percent of new car registrations, according to ACEA. A year ago, the share was 21 percent.

Total new registrations of electric vehicles in the EU amounted to 92,627 cars in August, a decrease of 44 percent compared to a year earlier.

The decline is particularly pronounced in Germany, where the decrease in August was 69 percent. But France also had a significant decline of 33 percent.

During the first eight months of the year, 902,011 electric vehicles were registered in the EU – 12.6 percent of the total number of new registrations.

Tags

TTT
By TTThis article has been altered and translated by Sweden Herald

More news

Latvia Secures 2.1 Billion Kronor
1 MIN READ

Latvia Secures 2.1 Billion Kronor Deal with Saab for Air Defense Systems

Renault Acquires Full Ownership of
1 MIN READ

Renault Acquires Full Ownership of Renault Nissan Automotive India

1,700 Jobs Saved as Northvolt
2 MIN READ

1,700 Jobs Saved as Northvolt Navigates Bankruptcy in Sweden

Swedish Pension Saver Loses Appeal
1 MIN READ

Swedish Pension Saver Loses Appeal in Falcon Funds Fraud Case

Huawei Reports First Quarterly Loss
1 MIN READ

Huawei Reports First Quarterly Loss in Years Following Sanctions

France Fines Apple 150 Million
1 MIN READ

France Fines Apple 150 Million Euros for Competition Violations

Maurel & Prom Shares Drop
1 MIN READ

Maurel & Prom Shares Drop 15 Percent After Venezuela License Revoked

Norwegian Oil Fund Invests 1.4
1 MIN READ

Norwegian Oil Fund Invests 1.4 Billion Euro in Offshore Wind Projects

Sweden's Wage Talks Reach Critical
1 MIN READ

Sweden's Wage Talks Reach Critical Stage as Deadline Looms

Sweden Leads Nordic Region in
1 MIN READ

Sweden Leads Nordic Region in Money Laundering, Report Finds

Swiss Varo Energy to Acquire
1 MIN READ

Swiss Varo Energy to Acquire Swedish Fuel Company Preem

German Inflation Drop Signals Potential
2 MIN READ

German Inflation Drop Signals Potential ECB Rate Cut in April

Half of Retrained Workers Shift
1 MIN READ

Half of Retrained Workers Shift to New Industries, CSN Reports

EQT-Backed Omega II Bids 54.9
1 MIN READ

EQT-Backed Omega II Bids 54.9 Billion Kronor for Fortnox

Food Prices Continue to Climb,
3 MIN READ

Food Prices Continue to Climb, but Major Increases May Be Over

Stockholm Stocks Slide as Trump's
2 MIN READ

Stockholm Stocks Slide as Trump's Tariff Plans Stir Markets

Tokyo Stocks Drop Sharply as
1 MIN READ

Tokyo Stocks Drop Sharply as Trump Tariffs Loom

Trump and Starmer Discuss Progress
1 MIN READ

Trump and Starmer Discuss Progress on US-UK Trade Deal

Håkan Samuelsson Returns as Volvo
2 MIN READ

Håkan Samuelsson Returns as Volvo Cars CEO to Drive Electric Future

Security Fund Reports Fewer Layoffs,
2 MIN READ

Security Fund Reports Fewer Layoffs, Sees Hope for Skilled Workers

South Korea, China, Japan Collaborate
1 MIN READ

South Korea, China, Japan Collaborate to Boost Free Trade

Trump's Diversity Order Faces Pushback
1 MIN READ

Trump's Diversity Order Faces Pushback from European Companies

Sweden Seeks to Shield Key
2 MIN READ

Sweden Seeks to Shield Key Goods from EU-US Tariff Clash

Weekend Push for New Industrial
2 MIN READ

Weekend Push for New Industrial Agreement as Deadline Looms

Swedes Opt for Europe as
3 MIN READ

Swedes Opt for Europe as US Travel Bookings Drop 30 Percent

Energy Efficiency Boosts Villa Prices
1 MIN READ

Energy Efficiency Boosts Villa Prices in Sweden's Real Estate Market

Elon Musk's XAI Acquires Platform
1 MIN READ

Elon Musk's XAI Acquires Platform X in Major Tech Move

Inflation Concerns Drag Down Wall
1 MIN READ

Inflation Concerns Drag Down Wall Street Indices

Sweden Seeks New Investors for
1 MIN READ

Sweden Seeks New Investors for Bankrupt Northvolt Battery Firm

US Inflation Surprises with Higher
1 MIN READ

US Inflation Surprises with Higher Than Expected February Rate

Li Ka-Shing Halts Sale of
1 MIN READ

Li Ka-Shing Halts Sale of Panama Canal Ports Amid Beijing Pressure

Princess Madeleine Addresses Criticism Over
2 MIN READ

Princess Madeleine Addresses Criticism Over New Skincare Venture

Stockholm Stocks Slide 4.5 Percent
1 MIN READ

Stockholm Stocks Slide 4.5 Percent in a Week as US Inflation Hits

French Inflation Dips Below Expectations,
1 MIN READ

French Inflation Dips Below Expectations, Impacting ECB Decisions

Cautious Consumer Spending Sees Slight
1 MIN READ

Cautious Consumer Spending Sees Slight Uptick in Sweden's Retail Sales

SSAB Faces Financial Supervisory Authority
1 MIN READ

SSAB Faces Financial Supervisory Authority Probe Over Reporting Rules

79,000 Swedes Face Student Debt
1 MIN READ

79,000 Swedes Face Student Debt with Enforcement Authority in 2024

Royal Expert Questions Princess Madeleine's
3 MIN READ

Royal Expert Questions Princess Madeleine's Skincare Venture

Gold Prices Reach New Heights
1 MIN READ

Gold Prices Reach New Heights as Trade Tariff Concerns Grow

Asian Markets Tumble as Investors
1 MIN READ

Asian Markets Tumble as Investors Brace for New US Tariffs