A number of European security services warned earlier this year of new types of hybrid attacks carried out by Russia, after a number of cargo flights caught fire. Tonight, a cargo plane crashed in Lithuania, and even though DHL says the cause is unclear, it could be just such an attack, according to former Lieutenant Colonel Jörgen Elfving.
According to him, the number of incidents that can be evidence of Russian hybrid warfare has increased in recent years. Among other things, there have been fires in defense industries in Germany, the United Kingdom, and the USA.
One can add the recent cable breaks in the Baltic Sea. From a Russian perspective, it could be a way to counter Western support to Ukraine and a way to escalate the conflict, he says.
"Difficult to control"
The USA has warned of an increased threat to the defense industry, and in the United Kingdom, the British Defense Minister is expected to highlight the risks of the new hybrid warfare. There are suspicions that NATO countries, but also the USA, are particularly vulnerable.
It stems from the Russian perspective that the West and NATO are waging a war through proxies in Ukraine, and then it fits like a glove to attack NATO countries, says Jörgen Elfving, who does not want to point out any country as particularly vulnerable.
Underwater cables and power supply systems can be targets for attacks, or a defense industry that produces key products for the war. Sending bombs and flammable items on planes has previously been used by, among others, the terrorist networks IS and al-Qaida, according to Elfving.
Despite the increased security when it comes to air travel, it is incredibly difficult with a cargo plane to control all goods that are loaded on board.
Increase vigilance
Meeting this type of warfare is difficult, believes Elfving.
First, one must increase awareness, then one must increase security and vigilance. What threats can be directed against targets in Sweden and how can we meet them? It becomes a question of increasing security, both access control, personnel control, and also protection of airspace.
Russia denies involvement and claims that the security services' warnings are a manifestation of Russophobia.
