C leader Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist has been tasked with exploring the possibility of forming a centrist government coalition by Monday.
In that case, it would primarily involve cooperation between S, C, MP, L and KD, with S leader Magdalena Andersson as prime minister.
It is not impossible that both L and KD could imagine it, but we have not seen any signals to that effect in advance, says Hinnfors.
Unlikely
He believes a centre-right government is unlikely, but does not dare to rule it out completely, since parties have shown themselves willing to change their positions in the past.
After the 2018 election, L and C agreed to cooperate with an S-MP government after 134 days.
This time, Hinnfors believes L is "maybe" further away from cooperating with an S-led government than KD is.
Liberal leader Simona Mohamsson has made clear that her choice for prime minister is Ulf Kristersson (M). She says the Liberals will "take responsibility for Sweden in opposition" if there is talk of a socialist-led government.
Hinnfors points out that before the election, KD leader Ebba Busch seemed to open the door to S, among other things by talking about a "right with a heart" and the need for broad cooperation.
But whether she meant it sincerely is hard to know.
Busch has also said several times that KD will not be a support party for S.
Instead, she wants to draw C into a right-wing coalition government. But C cannot imagine a centre-right government that depends on SD.
Could it soften?
Even though Thand Ringqvist's exploratory mission may seem hopeless, it could still be a step towards forming a new government, according to Hinnfors.
If C has been given the chance to explore the possibility of a centrist alternative and failed, that could lead to C becoming less opposed to allowing V into a red-green government.
Then it can go back to negotiations between the four (red-green) parties, says Hinnfors.
The Speaker of the Riksdag has four chances to propose a prime minister to the Riksdag. After that, a snap election must be called.
So far, only one prime ministerial vote has been held, in which S leader Magdalena Andersson was voted down.
Hinnfors does not believe the Speaker will propose Andersson in a new prime ministerial vote if Thand Ringqvist throws in the towel on Monday.
That would probably be perceived as strange.
In that situation, Hinnfors believes the task of exploring the options will go back to Andersson or Ulf Kristersson without a prime ministerial vote being held.
