Since the turn of the year, the Stockholm stock exchange has been around zero, despite one blow after another. The customs chaos in early April caused significant falls, but already after Donald Trump's announcement of a 90-day tariff pause, it recovered just as quickly.
One can think that it is a little strange. The conditions now are so different compared to before Trump's tariffs, says Maria Landeborn, senior strategist at Danske Bank.
Jens Magnusson, chief economist at SEB, also thinks it is a little surprising that the stock exchange is standing so strong, despite everything that has happened since Donald Trump took office as president in the USA.
The stock exchange has chosen to react positively to the agreements made with some on lower tariffs, he says.
Peter Malmqvist, independent stock analyst, notes that we come from a period of strong stock market optimism before Donald Trump's accession, and that it seems like the stock exchange wants to hold on to that feeling.
When Donald Trump backed down on tariffs, investors expected more spectacle than action from Donald Trump, says Peter Malmqvist.
Tariff pause over July 9
The risk of a really strong downturn does not seem to be imminent, they think. On July 9, the tariff pause is expected to be over, according to the promise from the USA. It is probably only then that we will see how the stock exchange reacts.
The question is what could make the stock exchange fall really badly.
If everyone has misjudged who Donald Trump is, if he is a dog that just barks or if he bites. If he really imposes higher tariffs on many countries, it could lead to deteriorations in both growth in the USA and higher inflation. There is a great fall height, and if the USA falls, everyone is dragged along, says Peter Malmqvist.
Jens Magnusson points to a significantly raised oil price, which has been high for a long time.
It could ruin the stock market mood.
Low conjuncture
Maria Landeborn explains that a difficult, global low conjuncture is what is required for the stock exchange to fall properly. Maybe due to a new inflation shock, or something else dramatic.
The stock exchange can lose 10 to 20 percent when something happens, but recovers if it does not lead to a really low conjuncture with high unemployment, she says.
For us Swedes, this may seem a bit contradictory, she notes. We have had a low conjuncture for a long time and also high unemployment.
The Swedish economy is not decisive for the Stockholm stock exchange. Swedish companies sell a lot on export, and the Stockholm stock exchange is doing well, says Maria Landeborn.
During 2024, the Stockholm stock exchange rose by about 6 percent. So far this year, it has remained relatively unchanged, despite all the sharp turns in world politics. On Friday, when Israel attacked Iran, it fell back a bit, but soon recovered the decline. When President Donald Trump presented his tariffs on April 2 this year, the stock exchange fell directly by about 13 percent, but after a few days, when President Trump announced his 90-day tariff pause, it quickly recovered. The Stockholm stock exchange has, however, reacted strongly to major events in the past. When the pandemic paralyzed the world, it fell by about 30 percent in early 2020, and when the financial crisis exploded in 2008, the fall was a whole 50 percent at once.
