The past week, the Russian records of falls against Ukraine have followed each other. Night after night, hundreds of drones have filled the sky above Ukrainian cities and instilled fear in the population.
In parallel, the US President Donald Trump has tried to maintain the image of having the situation under control. Russia and Ukraine will "immediately" initiate negotiations about a ceasefire, Trump claimed after last week's two-hour-long telephone call with the Russian President Vladimir Putin.
But after last night's massive attack, Trump suddenly shocked. "He has gone completely crazy!" Trump wrote about Putin on social media.
"Trump is naive"
Trump probably actually believed that he had gotten Putin to agree to real negotiations. He is naive, states Jan Hallenberg, professor emeritus in political science associated with the Foreign Policy Institute (UI).
is not affected by Trump saying nasty things about him and about Russia. The only thing that would work is real sanctions, but nothing is happening there. Therefore, Putin probably thinks he has got the green light.
It is clear that Russia considers itself to have the upper hand in the war, thinks Carolina Vendil Pallin, Russia expert at the Total Defence Research Institute (FOI).
I think Russia feels that things are going their way. There is, for example, no indication that the USA is preparing a new military support package for Ukraine, she says.
"Strengthening Putin"
Putin's war goals remain firm – just as they have for a long time, states Vendil Pallin. The talk about peace negotiations, the meetings in Istanbul, and the telephone calls with Trump have played into the Russian President's hands.
The whole dynamic was to Russia's advantage. They got a lot of things without even having to sit down at a negotiating table, she says and adds:
Negotiations with the USA strengthen Putin's legitimacy – and the image of Russia as a great power.
Vendil Pallin is not sure that strengthened American sanctions alone would stop the war.
Moscow is probably counting on the USA, as things stand now, having a hard time getting sanctions that would, for example, lead to China ceasing its exports to Russia.
Sanctions are a problem for Russia. However, it won't make them stop fighting now.
