Every third voter claims that they have become worse off since the last election, according to a survey from Indikator Opinion. But for many, it is not the budget figures that determine the vote in the ballot box, but the feeling of where society is heading, says Jonas Hinnfors, professor of political science at the University of Gothenburg.
The budget debates affect some voters, but for most, the figures and news become difficult to keep apart. Then it's more about how you experience social development and your own economic situation, says Hinnfors.
The Government's Strategy
According to Hinnfors, the government is trying with the budget to attract voters who feel that society has become worse under their rule, while trying to keep their core voters.
Healthcare queues are a problem. The strategy is to show that Sweden is getting the economy going, more people are getting jobs and more tax revenue is flowing into the state treasury. Then you can also handle welfare and give households more in their pocket. In this way, the government hopes that people will believe that the problems in welfare can be solved, he says.
With about a year left until the election, Hinnfors means that it can be difficult to see greater effects of the budget for private individuals, beyond rapid tax cuts.
- The opposition highlights deficiencies, the government highlights investments, and in the end, it becomes a matter of credibility and trust – whom the voters have confidence in among the party leaders and their economic spokespeople.
The Budget, an Election Winner?
Can the budget become a springboard for the government parties in the election?
I have difficulty seeing that it would become a big springboard. Much depends on how the opposition handles the debate. Soon the budget will be in the background, and the issues will become more important to voters, says Hinnfors.
He emphasizes that government formation and welfare issues can create debate. The Sweden Democrats' new ultimatum and The Liberals' low opinion figures can put the government issue at the center.
At the same time, the Social Democrats are driving on in the welfare issue, among other things about profits in school, and want to portray the government as one-sidedly focused on tax cuts.
The view of the welfare state can therefore become one of the major issues in the election, says Hinnfors.
