US Stock Market Rises Amid Tariff Uncertainty and Job Concerns

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US Stock Market Rises Amid Tariff Uncertainty and Job Concerns
Photo: Seth Wenig/AP/TT

The New York stock exchange is fluctuating up and down in equally sharp swings as President Donald Trump's announcements about import tariffs. It clearly ended up on Wednesday - but the labor market is weakening, and various analyses indicate an increased risk of recession.

American automotive industry gets a month's reprieve from the 25-percent tariffs that were introduced earlier in the week against neighboring countries Canada and Mexico.

Even before Trump's announcement on Wednesday, the rumor that it was on its way had caused the shares of automotive giants Stellantis, General Motors, and Ford to rise. They then increased further to close at plus 9.2, 7.2, and 5.8 percent, respectively.

This helped to lift the entire stock market, after several fluctuations during the day.

The Dow Jones industrial index and the broad S&P 500 index both rose 1.1 percent, and the technology-heavy Nasdaq composite index went up 1.5 percent.

Fewer jobs than expected

The very introduction of Trump's import tariffs – but also the uncertainty surrounding them – contributed to the New York stock exchange falling sharply on Monday and Tuesday.

On Wednesday, monthly statistics from payroll administrator ADP also showed that 77,000 new jobs were created in the private sector in the USA in February.

This is a sharp decline from 186,000 new jobs in the sector in January and the lowest level since July last year.

The decline was greater than expected. The average forecast among analysts was 140,000 new jobs in February, according to Bloomberg's compilation.

Increased risk of recession

At the same time, a calculation and analysis model from major bank JP Morgan Chase shows that the recent unrest and uncertainty have increased the risk of the US economy entering a recession from 17 percent in November last year to 31 percent, writes Bloomberg.

Another, similar, survey from major bank Goldman Sachs indicates that the same risk has increased from 14 percent in January this year to 23 percent currently.

Several other surveys also point in the same direction.

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By TTEnglish edition by Sweden Herald, adapted for local and international readers

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