Thailand needs to buy new fighter jets and during the year, two top candidates have emerged: Saab's Gripen and the American Lockheed Martin's F-16 planes.
On Tuesday, the news came that Thailand's air force has decided on Gripen. However, how many they want to buy is not known.
In the near future, the government of Thailand is also expected to make a decision on the matter, and then the ball will be passed to Sweden.
The Inspectorate for Strategic Products (ISP) will then be tasked with making a comprehensive assessment, including from defense and security policy aspects, and determining whether a permit is possible. Since 2018, there is a new requirement to take into account - the democracy criterion.
The purchasing country must respect human rights and democracy, and that can be questioned when it comes to Thailand, says Martin Lundmark, lecturer in defense systems at the Defense University.
Not feasible
This could, in turn, stop the deal. Another thing that could affect the decision is if the country that Sweden is to export to is considered unstable and not believed to be able to handle and manage the system they want to buy.
That it would leak to other countries or that their processes and controls are too poor. That would also stop it, that knowledge about Gripen comes into others' hands.
But my opinion is that Thailand is not seen as such a country, adds Martin Lundmark.
If Thailand had close ties to, for example, Russia, the Gripen deal would not be able to become a reality either.
Thailand is quite Western in its approach, but they are not so closely allied with the USA or allied with Russia or China. If they had a developed cooperation with Russia or China, this export would not be feasible.
Has the casting vote
The democracy requirement is likely to be the one that could potentially stop the deal. But even if there were comments from ISP based on this criterion, the deal could still go through.
In the end, the Defense Forces together with the government can come to the conclusion that this is important for maintaining Swedish development capabilities and Swedish military capabilities. They have the casting vote in the end.
Saab 39 Gripen is a Swedish fighter jet manufactured by Saab. The decision to build the plane was made in 1982. The first flight was made in 1988.
The plane exists in several different versions, including Jas 39 Gripen E.
Nations that have bought or rented Gripen are South Africa, Brazil, Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Thailand.
Source: The Defense Forces, The Defense Materiel Administration
