The Fate Debate in the USA: Provocations to Come

The opinion situation is super even, the microphone problem investigated and the arguments sharpened. It's time for the USA election campaign's decisive battle: the TV debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.

» Published: September 10 2024

The Fate Debate in the USA: Provocations to Come
Photo: Charles Rex Arbogast/AP/TT

Republican and entrepreneur Erin Decker in the swing state of Wisconsin is tense. She is active in local politics and has supported Donald Trump since the 2016 election. After Joe Biden's announcement that he will not run for re-election, she is worried that the media is being too soft on the Democrats' Kamala Harris.

Prosecutor Harris?

Like many Trump supporters, Decker portrays Kamala Harris as a "socialist", among other things, with reference to the price controls she has wanted to introduce on certain everyday goods. The epithet is frequently used by former President Trump, who in social media portrays "comrade" Harris as a left-wing radical and a liar, attacking her intelligence.

The question is whether this is to Harris' advantage or disadvantage in light of the debate?

Such epithets can be questioned, which allows her to highlight her background as a tough prosecutor, something the Democrats' strategists would like. During her time as a senator, the vice president became known for tough grillings of, among others, Supreme Court nominees.

But Harris must also continue to present herself to her fellow citizens and answer questions about where she really stands on issues such as US support for Israel in the Gaza conflict and fracking as a method of extracting gas and oil.

Former President Trump also has some explaining to do, primarily when it comes to the abortion issue. In recent weeks, he has first supported a proposal in his home state of Florida to extend abortion rights from the current six weeks – and then swung around and said he would vote against it.

Tough Setup

Both sides will likely try to play the ball on the other half of the field, by provoking the opponent to make mistakes.

Opinion polls show that many voters dislike it when Donald Trump leaves policy issues and resorts to personal attacks. It is likely therefore that the Harris campaign has long argued for the microphones to be on even when the opponent is speaking, so that Trump's unfavorable attempts to interrupt would become clear to the viewer.

That's not going to happen now. The 90-minute debate in Philadelphia in the swing state of Pennsylvania is taking place without a studio audience and is tightly controlled. When one candidate speaks, the other's microphone is turned off.

The opinion polls could not be more even, which means that the only debate between the two candidates in the election campaign can be decisive. Harris has just surpassed Trump in national opinion and in none of the seven crucial swing states does the difference exceed two percentage points between them.

Democrat Kamala Harris currently has the support of 48.1 percent of Americans, and Republican Donald Trump has the support of 46.7 percent, according to the political website Real Clear Politics' compilation of current measurements.

The United States' complicated electoral system means that the election is decided in a few swing states. This is how the candidates' support looks in percentage terms in these states.

The number of electoral votes in each swing state is in parentheses, and to win the presidential election, a candidate needs the support of at least 270 electoral votes.

Pennsylvania (19): Trump: 47.6; Harris: 47.6

Georgia (16): Harris: 48.3; Trump: 48.2

North Carolina (16): Trump: 47.9; Harris: 47.2

Michigan (15): Harris: 48.3; Trump: 47.1

Arizona (11): Trump: 48.4; Harris: 46.8

Wisconsin (10): Harris: 48.7; Trump: 47.2

Nevada (6): Harris: 48; Trump: 47.4

The presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 5.

Source: Real Clear Politics

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By TTThis article has been altered and translated by Sweden Herald

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