Ahead of Tuesday's match against France, the numbers in the betting market speak for themselves. Sweden is a foregone conclusion. But how big would a Swedish victory really be from a sports-historical perspective?
It is very unlikely and it would be a huge sensation, one of the biggest in Swedish sports history, says Isak Lidström and continues:
At the same time, the essence of sport is based on the fact that these stories will happen at some point. The greater the odds, the greater the impact if the miracle does happen.
“They are people”
Everyone assumes that France will win, perhaps quite easily, says Kutte Jönsson, professor of sports science at Malmö University and continues:
And if France doesn't win, the talk will be that France didn't have a good day. But even if they are a better team, they are also human.
He points out the difference compared with the bronze medal in 1994, when Sweden was actually tipped as the favourite in advance in several matches.
Sweden was never a big underdog on paper in those matches, which is the difference now. So yes, this would be bigger in terms of sheer size.
"David vs. Goliath"
Isak Lidström believes that a win would be etched deep in the history books, largely thanks to the great global interest in men's football.
It would probably be on par with 94, if not higher, since they really came out on top here. They were actually eliminated in the qualifiers but pushed through the eye of a needle.
The desire to see an underdog win is deeply rooted in humanity, a storytelling tradition that stretches far back in time.
"It goes back to biblical stories, it's David's fight against Goliath. They will talk about national team captain Graham Potter as a saviour, they talk in religious language when these stories happen," says Lidström.
Sweden's own "Miracle on Ice"
Swedish sports history is not without its share of sensations. The women's national team's semi-final victory over the USA at the 2006 Turin Olympics, for example. But internationally, there is one feat that stands above most: the "Miracle on Ice" from 1980, when the US college hockey players won over the unbeatable Soviet Union.
If Sweden wins tomorrow, it will be a similarly epic story, says Lidström.
Even though the oddsmakers have ruled out Sweden, historians remind us that the ball still needs to be rolled.
"Betting companies are still only based on expectations, and a lot can happen on the pitch. The big unforeseen factor can always occur," says Lidström.
2006: The women's national ice hockey team surprises everyone and wins the semi-final against the USA at the Turin Olympics after penalties.
1990: The Swedish handball masters defeat the Soviet Union 27–23 in the World Cup final in Prague.
1989: The Swedish men's national table tennis team breaks the Great Wall of China and defeats China in the World Cup final 5–0.
1958: Sweden's men's national team wins the semi-final over West Germany 3–1 in the home World Cup.
