What is the current situation?
On Friday, S leader Magdalena Andersson and M leader Ulf Kristersson will present their respective “total packages” that the Centre Party has called for.
The packages will cover both policy and how it will be implemented, so that C’s red lines are not crossed. The party will not accept V being part of a government and opposes giving SD influence over government policy.
C has said it does not plan to comment on the packages on Friday, but probably not until next week.
What kind of talks are taking place?
M leader Ulf Kristersson is currently tasked with trying to form a government. He is aiming for a four-party government comprising M, KD, L and C. The challenge is how he will limit such a government’s dependence on SD in order, for example, to get its budget through.
S leader Magdalena Andersson is also working to put together an S-C-MP government, which the Left Party will not be part of but will cooperate with. However, V continues to demand ministerial posts and has announced that it will leave talks with the Red-Greens until C has chosen a side.
Why is it taking so long?
The situation remains very deadlocked. So far, the only party to have backed down from its red lines is the Sweden Democrats, which has announced that it will drop its demand for ministerial posts and can accept a four-party government comprising M, KD, L and C.
On the red-green side, which won a majority with 176 seats in the election, the red lines are firm.
It usually takes less time to form a government after a parliamentary election. But in 2018, it took 134 days to form a new government.
Will there be a special election?
A special election will be held if four votes for prime minister in the Riksdag have failed. So far, two votes have been held, the first on the S leader and the second on the C leader.
On Tuesday, Ulf Kristersson will report back to Speaker Andreas Norlén. The Speaker has said that he works on the principle that a sounding-out process should be followed by a vote. But since the next vote will be the third, he has also said there may be reasons to be a little cautious.
Earlier this week, Magdalena Andersson said the Speaker should give the red-green parties more time before holding the third prime ministerial vote - “an extra one to two weeks”.
When will Sweden have a new government?
It is impossible to say. If Speaker Andreas Norlén puts forward Ulf Kristersson in a prime ministerial vote next week and it fails, there will be only one attempt left before a special election is automatically called. That should increase pressure on the parties to reach an agreement.
If the red-green side is to succeed, it is likely that one party, either V or C, will back down from its red lines and face the ensuing debate over betrayal.
A special election, if it becomes necessary, should be held within three months of the decision to call one.
What do you think?