The Swedish Central Bank chose last week to leave the policy rate unchanged, but Riksbank Governor Erik Thedéen has signalled that the next change in the policy rate will be an increase.
Households with large mortgages are naturally wondering when that increase might happen. However, economists are hardly in agreement on this - quite the opposite.
Both SEB and Swedbank have now revised their forecasts, with SEB, for example, expecting a first increase in March 2027, followed by a second increase in September the same year.
Two raises
Previously, only one increase was seen ahead (in the later part of 2027).
There are actually two things that we think have changed since last time. One is indications of slightly higher inflationary pressure, the other is that the Swedish economy in general is starting to pick up speed, says the bank's chief economist Jens Magnusson to TT.
For example, state-owned SBAB believes in two increases in the key interest rate already this year. Handelsbanken, in turn, is following the same line as SEB, meaning no increase at all this year.
Historically, it is unusually divided, notes Jens Magnusson.
Quite often, you have essentially the same forecasts in the near future, and then it can be slightly different a couple of years from now.
Other solutions
A mortgage borrower with several million risks becoming very confused by all the different forecasts, right?
I can understand that. If I were a private economist, I would probably still advise not to go completely on either forecast, regardless of whether you have a favourite forecaster or not.
Jens Magnusson points out that if a couple of months' difference regarding an interest rate increase can affect personal finances, then other solutions should be looked at.
Then you may be too exposed to variable interest rates and should either commit or work to reduce your debt, he says.
Swedbank - which previously believed in an unchanged key interest rate until 2028 - now expects the first increase to come as early as this year.
SEB, in turn, believes that the first increase will be delayed until March 2027, followed by a second increase in September the same year.
State-owned SBAB announced last week that it expects two interest rate hikes from the Swedish Central Bank this year - in November and December.
Nordea, in turn, predicts that the Swedish Central Bank will wait until the end of the year or the beginning of next year.
Handelsbanken, in turn, does not believe in any interest rate hikes at all this year. It predicts that there will be two increases in 2027, the first of which will be in March.
