It will be a little better both years, says Robert Boije to TT.
For 2025, the new GDP forecast is for a moderate recovery of 1.2 percent, but this is more than the previous forecast of 1.0 percent. For next year, SBAB's economists expect a slightly better pace and raise the growth forecast to 2.6 percent, up from 2.5 percent.
However, the labor market situation still looks quite bleak, with a peak in unemployment this year of 8.7 percent and a marginal decrease to 8.4 percent in 2026.
At the same time, the inflation forecast is lowered slightly, partly as an effect of halving the food VAT.
CPIF inflation – where the effects of mortgage interest rates have been excluded – is assumed to fall from 2.7 percent this year to 1.4 percent in 2026. The forecast includes a reinstatement of food VAT in 2027, which SBAB's economists expect will raise CPIF inflation to 1.9 percent.
According to SBAB's forecast, the Riksbank's policy rate is expected to remain at the current level of 1.75 percent at least some time into 2027, and then be raised as the economy normalizes.
House prices are expected to rise by 4-5 percent per year in 2026 and 2027, respectively, as household incomes rise.
Residential construction is expected to increase by 2,000-3,000 new housing starts per year from this year's estimated 29,000 new housing starts.
Facts: SBAB
