New polls show opposition ahead by a narrow margin

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New polls show opposition ahead by a narrow margin
Photo: Anders Wiklund/TT

For the Liberals, who have fought for their survival in the Riksdag during the election campaign, things continue to look much brighter than earlier this year. In GP-TV4/Novus, L reaches 4.7 percent voter support, in DN/Ipsos 5.0 percent, in Ekot/Indikator 5.4 percent and in SVT/Verian 5.5 percent.

According to Indikator's estimate, support for L consists of about half so-called tactical votes, from people who actually prefer another party.

The differences between the blocs vary greatly in the polls, but the common denominator is that the opposition leads in all of them.

In Verian's survey, S, V, C and MP lead by 5.6 percentage points ahead of the Tidö parties SD, M, KD and L. In Indikator's and Novus' surveys, the bloc difference is 3.2 and 3.0 percentage points respectively in favor of the opposition - in Ipsos' survey, the difference is razor-thin, only 0.3 percent.

In some cases, the red-green lead is statistically certain, but in some it is not.

Lying still

Jonas Hinnfors, professor emeritus of political science at the University of Gothenburg, tells GP - in connection with the Novus survey - that the Tidö parties' pursuit of the opposition has lost momentum and that this is confirmed by other survey institutes.

It is likely that the Tidö parties will lose, it is unchanged for the fourth survey in a row, says Hinnfors.

Nicklas Källebring, opinion analyst at Ipsos, tells DN that there are still margins of error in the survey.

Right now it is an open question whether there will be a change of government. We are in a situation where it will be very even, says Källebring.

SD larger than M

In all polls, the Social Democrats are the largest party with voter support of 27.4-28.6 percent.

Among the Tidö parties, voter support is greatest for the Sweden Democrats - ahead of the Moderates - in all polls, but with different margins. SD's voter support is calculated at 18.1-19.5 percent in the polls, M's voter support amounts to 15.8-18.3 percent.

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TT News AgencyT
By TT News Agency. English edition by Sweden Herald, adapted for our readers

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