The red-green parties S, V, MP and C receive 51.3 percent, while the Tidö parties M, SD, KD and L receive 46.8 percent of the votes in the survey.
Even in TV4's election-day survey, the opposition is clearly larger than the Tidö parties.
S gets 28.4 percent in Valu, a loss of 1.9 percentage points compared with the 2022 election. And it is uncomfortably close to the worst result S has received in a parliamentary election.
However, party secretary Tobias Baudin does not dare to claim victory in advance.
But if this survey holds up, it means that Magdalena Andersson will become prime minister of our country.
“I was shocked”
M becomes the second-largest party and receives 18.1 percent, but it is still a loss of 1.0 percentage points.
It's too early to say anything about it yet. We know that there are still two options facing each other and I think it will still be very difficult for the parties on the left to form a government if this holds up, says Karin Enström, party secretary for M.
According to information given to several media outlets, Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson (M) does not intend to admit defeat if the red-greens gain a majority. Sources in M point out that the red-greens do not have a ready-made government alternative and that there are currently many deadlocks between the parties.
The plan is to attract C to the Tidö side, but so far C has stubbornly refused to collaborate with SD.
SD accounts for the biggest loss in the survey, landing at 17.2 percent, down 3.3 percentage points compared with the 2022 election. If it holds up, it will be the first time SD has fallen in a parliamentary election.
I was quite shocked because I had expected the Sweden Democrats to maintain their position as the second-largest party in Sweden, and I think we will end up there too, says SD member Björn Söder.
“I was so happy”
However, at L's election vigil there was great jubilation, even though there will be no Tidö government with Valu's numbers.
The party has been down to levels around 2 percent in public opinion and risked leaving parliament, but is making a big recovery and landing at 5.4 percent.
This is a historic recovery if these figures hold up, says party secretary Fredrik Brange.
"I was so happy, of course. Oh my God, Simona Mohamsson - what a job she has done," exclaims Liberal MP Martin Melin.
V becomes the fourth-largest party and receives 8.0 percent, an increase of 1.3 percentage points.
The most important thing is to say goodbye to Tidö. I hope it lasts, says Ida Gabrielsson, economic policy spokesperson for V.
C lands at 7.5 percent, up 0.8.
MP gets 7.4 percent, up 2.3 percentage points. KD also rises, by 0.8 percentage points to 6.1 percent.
This year, Valu is based on survey responses from 13,709 voters at polling stations around the country, which is the largest dataset ever.
