Every year, the Swedish Consumer Agency calculates what Swedish households can reasonably spend on food and other things. By 2026, food costs are expected to decrease significantly, but not due to lower food prices but "changed methods and calculation bases," the agency writes.
The basis of the new calculation model is a new month-long menu. It is adapted to updated dietary and nutritional recommendations and a more sedentary lifestyle. It uses a new method for measuring food prices and takes into account an expected reduction in food VAT.
Based on this, the Swedish Consumer Agency estimates that a family with two children, 5 and 9 years old, will spend 8,440 SEK per month on food in 2026.
This is SEK 2,090 less than the corresponding calculation for 2025, a reduction of approximately 20 percent.
“Wishful thinking”
It sounds a bit more like wishful thinking than a realistic menu, says savings economist Sharon Lavie.
The menu is nutritious – but contains few of the items that many families with children lean towards. No macaroni, no ketchup and almost no semi-finished classics like ready-made meatballs, fish fingers and sausages.
This standard for household expenses is used, among other things, as a basis for the government to decide on the national standard for income support, the so-called social allowance.
In other words: if the calculation is unrealistically low, people and families living on the margins risk receiving too little financial assistance.
Those who receive social assistance, those who may have a seizure by the Enforcement Service or debt restructuring, where every krona is so important – they receive a reduced amount, says Sharon Lavie.
Does not follow reality
But shouldn't we change our habits then?
The Consumer Agency's mission is not to tell people how to eat, I think they should make a cost calculation based on reality, says Lavie.
The same template is used by several authorities, such as the Swedish Enforcement Authority and the Swedish Social Insurance Agency, but also in the "left to live on" calculations that banks make for mortgages, which according to Lavie creates a risk of over-lending.
In this case, it will be a flat fall. They do not empower consumers anywhere, she says.
Every year, the Swedish Consumer Agency delivers a forecast of what a household might have to pay. The calculations are intended to provide an indication of what is required for a good everyday life.
For 2026, the forecast for food costs has been significantly reduced compared to 2025, due to a new calculation model.
The hub of this model is a new menu, with one month's sample meals. It is adapted to the Nordic Nutrition Recommendations from 2023 and the Swedish National Food Agency's updated dietary guidelines from 2025, which include less red meat and cured meats.
They also expect a less physically active lifestyle than previous calculations. The agency also assumes that food VAT will be reduced from 12 to 6 percent in April 2026.
Source: Swedish Consumer Agency
