Middle East Conflict Escalation May Trigger Global Inflation Concerns

The escalation of the war between Israel and Iran with the US involvement can create ripples in the world economy. Continued rising oil prices can affect Swedish households as well. It can make the central banks stressed with higher energy prices that can bring the inflation specter to life and make future interest rate cuts more difficult, says SEB's Robert Bergqvist, to Ekot.

» Published: June 22 2025 at 14:04

Middle East Conflict Escalation May Trigger Global Inflation Concerns
Photo: Claudio Bresciani/TT

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It will take until Monday before we see how the market reacts to the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East where the US struck against three Iranian nuclear facilities during the night to Sunday.

"At present, we do not see signs of a global recession even if the risks of worse growth have increased and as long as oil deliveries are not severely disrupted, much suggests that this will be a period of increased volatility, not a lasting decline", writes SPP's savings economist Shoka Åhrman in an email comment.

The price of oil has risen by around 25 percent in one and a half months. A barrel of crude oil costs about 76 dollars, which corresponds to the price levels at the beginning of the year.

Since Israel attacked Iran, the concern in the market has increased due to the risks that Iran will block the narrow Strait of Hormuz, where a fifth of the world's oil traffic passes to and from the Gulf states.

I usually describe it as one of the pulse veins of world trade that passes through the region, says Robert Berqvist, senior economist at SEB, to Ekot.

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By TTTranslated and adapted by Sweden Herald
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