Housing prices fell in the country by 0.9 percent in June, according to the state-owned bank SBAB and the housing website Booli's price index.
Traditionally, there is also a decline in June, but even adjusted for seasonal effects, a decline of 0.2 percent can be seen, which is a bit more than usual, notes SBAB's chief economist Robert Boije.
During the spring, a clearly negative trend has also been seen, he points out.
It's no celebration, looking at trend values, they have been negative all spring and that despite the fact that we have significantly lower mortgage rates than at the same time last year, he says.
Trump affects
External factors such as US President Donald Trump's tariff games and geopolitical unrest in the Middle East are possible reasons why the development on the housing market has become so cautious, Robert Boije believes.
Then you become a bit more cautious about making this type of big decision and how much you are willing to pay, he says about hesitant buyers.
This can also be a partial explanation for why the villa market is being pressed hard in June, especially in Greater Stockholm where the decline is as much as 3.2 percent.
We know that villa prices are highest in Stockholm and maybe the external worry leaves its clearest marks where prices are highest, Boije speculates.
SBAB had in its latest market forecast an assessment that housing prices will rise by 3 percent in 2025. The notion that prices may have bottomed out now, Robert Boije does not sign up for. This is based on seasonal patterns seen in the housing market as well as the fact that longer-term fixed mortgage rates have not moved downward.
These are primarily the ones that are important for housing prices. I would rather conclude that we may need to revise our housing price forecast even more than we have done.
More cuts are needed
The Swedish Central Bank's announcement of a rate cut in June needs to be followed by further such cuts to get the market going, Boije assesses.
What is needed then to get the housing market going?
Let's say that Trump stops messing with tariffs and it becomes a calmer world, that could be positive factors.
