I think the likelihood that something would draw NATO into this, as it stands now, is very small, he says.
Since the attacks on Iran began on Saturday, the violence has continued to intensify.
On Sunday evening, NATO stated that its Supreme Allied Commander in Europe, Alexus Grynkewich, is closely monitoring the situation in and around Iran and will adjust the continent's forces to meet "potential threats," according to AFP.
But for a NATO commitment to become relevant and Article 5 - the alliance's fundamental principle of collective defense - to be activated, it would require something like Iran directly attacking the territory of another NATO country, says Winnerstig.
That would be required
The attacks directed at American military bases in the Gulf states are therefore not "enough".
If Iran were to somehow start sending missiles at European capitals or American targets in, let's say, England or Italy, then this becomes an Article 5 issue.
He also believes that there are other hypothetical scenarios that could possibly raise the question of activating Article 5.
A borderline case would be if, for example, an American aircraft carrier were hit by Iranian missiles while in Greek territorial waters. But it is doubtful whether this would be seen as a NATO issue.
No from the UK
Winnerstig also points out that countries allied with Washington, including the United Kingdom, have so far refused to assist the Americans and Israelis in their attacks.
"Nobody likes the Iranian regime. But on the other hand, they probably think that this is something for which Israel and the US must take responsibility," he says.
The core of the NATO military alliance is the so-called Article 5, which states that an attack against one NATO country is an attack against the entire alliance and that all members are obliged to help the country.
However, Article 5 has only been used once so far in NATO history: when the United States requested assistance immediately after the terrorist attacks in the United States on September 11, 2001.
