In Novus' latest opinion poll, the Social Democrats are down 4.3 percentage points.
It is extremely unusual for any party to increase or decrease so much in a single poll, says Hinnfors, professor emeritus of political science at the University of Gothenburg.
When it has happened, it has been about special events, he says, citing Håkan Juholt's decline in public opinion as an example.
However, the Social Democrats have gradually lost ground during the year and, according to Hinnfors, have been on a "slow journey downwards" regardless of which institute you ask.
But it is not unusual for the Social Democrats to be quite risky to be relatively close to the election if you look at Novus's polls historically. After that, they have often increased by one or a couple of percentage points in the election, he says.
Can influence voters
In the Novus poll published on Wednesday, the Liberals receive 3.3 percent, which is an increase of 1.4 percentage points compared with the previous poll on August 19.
Hinnfors understands that party leader Simona Mohamsson is reacting to the poll with a big smile. If the party can get over the four percent threshold in less than two weeks, this is a step in the right direction.
Hinnfors emphasizes that it is far too early to talk about any trend, but even individual surveys can influence voters.
If you have 2.5 percent in opinion polls, many are convinced that voting for the party is a waste. If you are at 3.5 in a poll, of course more people believe that the party has a chance. Now they are at 3.3 in a poll from an institute and exactly where the limit is cannot be said for sure.
Åkesson's border
The Sweden Democrats' Jimmie Åkesson, on the other hand, has a clear limit. If the Liberals are not at 3.5 percent in the opinion poll ten days before the election, he sees a vote for the party as wasted. He stands by that after the Novus poll.
All of this, opinion polls and statements, will play a role in how voters think about possibly voting in support, says Hinnfors.
A total of 2,984 people were interviewed in the Novus survey. In the survey, the opposition's lead shrinks to 2.6 percentage points.
