Vera Policy is the forecasting company that SVT used on election night. Gustav Karreskog Rehbinder, a mathematician, doctor of economics and founder of Vera Policy, notes that the forecast turned out well.
The election was very close, with only about 30,000 votes separating the blocs, and no party has wanted to claim victory at this point. Right now, the opposition is leading with 176 seats to 173 for Tidösidan.
But there are still votes to be counted, partly overseas votes and partly late early votes, and there are still some districts from election night that have not been reported, according to the Election Authority's press service.
The late early and overseas votes will be counted on Wednesday, possibly also Thursday, before the preliminary results are ready. How many votes are involved is unclear, but in the 2022 election there were 224,000, according to the Election Authority. And since there were a record number of early voters this year, that number could be higher.
“Usually gets worse”
So it could still turn around, although there is not much indication of it. The forecast, according to Vera Policy, says that the result will stay at the current level, but that there could be a shift of one seat within the red-green bloc, from S to V.
The Social Democrats usually do a little worse in these catchment districts. The Left Party a little better, says Gustav Karreskog Rehbinder.
But the forecast model is somewhat uncertain regarding the remaining votes to be counted.
We don't know what Wednesday's votes are, says Karreskog Rehbinder.
“Will do a lot more”
But still, he doesn't believe in any recovery for the blue team that will be enough to turn things around. It would take something exceptionally unexpected.
It will take a lot for it to swing over to Tidösidan, he says.
Political scientist Tommy Möller is noncommittal.
"I don't dare speculate. I can't say more than that it's not clear," says Tommy Möller.
Second bill
When almost 95 percent of the electoral districts have been counted by lunchtime on Monday, the Left Party, Social Democrats, Green Party and Center Party look set to receive 176 seats while the Liberal Party, Christian Democrats, Moderate Party and Sweden Democrats look set to land on 173 seats, according to the Election Authority.
In parallel, the second count, the final one, is taking place at the country's county administrative boards. They began counting on Monday morning, according to the Election Authority, and it is estimated to take about a week. Personal votes will also be accounted for in that count.
Facts: The forecast model
Vera Policy's forecasting model is simply based on how voters voted last time compared to the counted districts in this year's election. That change is then used to draw conclusions about the votes that have not yet been counted.
