At least 30 civilians were killed in the American air strikes against Yemen over the weekend. The attack was Donald Trump's first against the Houthi movement since he took office as the US President in January. It is seen as a response to reports that the Houthis had attacked American drones and aircraft in the area, but also as a marking against planned attacks on Israeli ships off Yemen's coast.
This, in turn, is linked to the conflict with Iran, says Jan Hallenberg, professor emeritus in political science affiliated with the Foreign Policy Institute.
Established stance
The connections in the region between different regional and global powers are many. What is happening from the American side now should not be interpreted as one of Donald Trump's more unpredictable decisions.
The fundamental motivation from the US is the same as it has been for the past 80 years. That the commercial shipping lanes in the free seas should be open, says Jan Hallenberg and continues:
It is a display of traditional American strength and a marking from the Republican side that they are more powerful than the Democrats.
"Not zero"
Even during Joe Biden's time as President, the US attacked the Houthi movement, which controls large parts of Yemen. The attacks over the weekend were, however, more powerful, according to Hallenberg.
In the coming days, we will likely see reprisals from the Houthi side, believes Hallenberg. But the situation in the region escalating is unlikely.
But at the same time, it is not zero due to this with Iran. It is always difficult to assess the Iranian regime, he says.
Iran will, however, "lie low", believes Hallenberg, and not actively seek armed conflict with either the US or Israel. Nor will Trump actively want to escalate the warfare.
Trump is no warmonger. Trump wants, it seems to me, to reach a negotiated solution with Iran. Or threaten, you should not think that you can support the Houthis without it costing.
