It took several years before the EU took the large wave of refugees seriously after the Syrian war broke out in 2011. It was not until 2015 that asylum applications in the EU reached their peak.
That could be the case now, too. But it could also happen faster or slower, says Bernd Parusel, researcher and migration expert at the Swedish Institute for European Policy Studies (Sieps).
If the Iranian regime tightens its grip on the country, targeting opponents and minorities, many will flee.
Then there is a risk of a larger refugee situation. Iran is a large country. Syria has around 26 million inhabitants and Iran over 90 million. If a similar proportion were to start fleeing as during the Syrian war, it would be several million people.
Neighboring countries are important
According to Parusel, how the situation then develops in Europe depends on how Iran's neighboring countries act and on the living conditions for refugees there. But the situation in the region is unstable.
There are already large refugee populations there. Their willingness and ability to accept additional large numbers of people from Iran are limited.
It is difficult for Iranians to get to the EU, including because of visa restrictions, while most EU countries have tightened asylum policies.
If there is a new major refugee crisis in Iran that also affects the EU, I do not think the EU is prepared for it.
EU policy options
The EU cooperates with countries in both the Middle East and North Africa where, in exchange for EU support, they limit migration flows.
It seems quite likely that, if there is a major refugee crisis, support will be increased to various relevant countries along migration routes so that they prevent people from moving on.
The EU could also increase support for aid organizations, accept quota refugees, or activate the mass displacement directive - such as for those fleeing the war in Ukraine. They would receive temporary protection and residence and work permits in all EU countries.
Right now I don't see that the political will for that exists.
Can the EU refuse to accept refugees from Iran?
Legally, as long as people are not at an EU border, there is no requirement for the EU to accept people and examine their asylum claims. Then there may be moral and political pressure to do something anyway.
There could be pressure, for example if an important country like Turkey says "We can't handle all these people; some have to be allowed to move on."
