Thousands of civilians are fleeing as jihadist rebels, led by the extreme Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), are advancing towards the city of Homs – after capturing both Aleppo and Hama within a week.
Regime forces have reportedly retreated from parts of the metropolis, but so far, they have not received any extensive help from Russia or Iran.
I assume that one understands how urgent the situation is, but it may be that one cannot act with the speed and scale needed to make a bigger difference, says Aron Lund, Middle East analyst at the Total Defence Research Institute (FOI).
Divided into two parts
If the rebels take Homs, what remains of the Syrian state will be divided into two parts, according to Lund. One part will be the capital Damascus, where Assad himself sits, with all state institutions and military headquarters. The other will be the coastal areas – where Assad traditionally has his strongest support. There are also the ports and two Russian bases, which leads back to Russia's momentum being lost.
Aron Lund believes that dictator Bashar al-Assad is still in the country. The chances of the jihadists taking the capital are difficult to predict.
It's an unrealistic thought that they could roll into Damascus without resistance. But it was an unrealistic thought that they could roll into Aleppo, Hama, and Homs as well, says Lund.
The rebels' chances
How do you see the risk of this developing into a civil war like the one after 2011?
I think it's very high.
Even if Hayat Tahrir al-Sham were to crush the regime quite thoroughly, and that's a huge "if", the question is whether they can govern the country? Can they take over eastern and southern Syria? What happens with western Syria where so many Assad supporters live? Will they be able to get the economy going, which has been making the country fall apart?
