The election results are not expected to be completely clear until Wednesday at the earliest, but for now the red-green bloc is leading by three seats.
If this holds, Ulf Kristersson's government has fallen, says S party secretary Tobias Baudin.
Then Magdalena Andersson will become the new prime minister.
But M leader Ulf Kristersson has not given up hope of continuing as prime minister even if the red-green bloc wins more seats. He believes Andersson will have difficulty bringing together S, MP, V and C in a government partnership.
He opened the door on election night to new constellations to gain support for a bourgeois government. But then he needs to entice C, which had Magdalena Andersson as its prime ministerial candidate during the election campaign.
Are the differences smaller?
On Monday, the S leadership met to set up negotiation strategies. Despite red lines, former S minister Morgan Johansson believes the differences between the red-greens are significantly smaller now than when Stefan Löfven put together the January Agreement with S, MP, C and L after the 2018 election.
All parties on this side want to change the government and have a different direction, says Johansson.
If Magdalena Andersson is allowed to form a government, Mikael Damberg (S) is expected to become minister of finance.
"I find it hard to believe that the Centre Party would join forces with the SD," he says.
C's party secretary Hannes Hervieu says in a comment that they are ready to discuss with S how Sweden can have a capable government. He believes the election results show that voters are not asking for either an economic left turn or great influence for SD.
Tidö party leaders meet
Kristersson gathered his party leadership at the M headquarters on Blasieholmen to analyse the situation. After a few hours, Justice Minister Gunnar Strömmer came out.
"We're not in a hurry. Right now it's hard to see how this will turn out, given all the red lines," he says.
This evening, the leaders of the Tidö parties will also meet.
KD leader Ebba Busch said on SVT's election night coverage last night that "there will be a lot of pressure on both C and SD."
"Are you prepared to take responsibility for Sweden?" said Busch.
One question is whether SD is prepared to give up ministerial posts to get C to accept a bourgeois government.
SD's party secretary Mattias Bäckström Johansson does not see the ministerial demand being dropped.
"No, it's a mandate we've taken at our congress. But it's of course a very hypothetical question, where we primarily want to see that there is an election result to relate to," he says.
Left out?
He thinks Ulf Kristersson's statement about opening up to other constellations are "words that should stand for him". When asked if SD is afraid of being left out by M, Bäckström Johansson replies that "they don't push us around like that".
We are still one of the three largest parties in the country. That means we will have a lot to say.
On the red-green side, it is unclear whether any talks have been planned, but party secretary Tobias Baudin is said to have had text message contact with his red-green colleagues.
Only when the election results are completely clear on Wednesday or Thursday are party talks expected to begin in earnest.
