Households feel optimistic about their personal finances – lower interest rates and slowed inflation create more space in the wallet – and positive growth in Christmas shopping, according to the analysis company HUI, which is owned by Svensk Handel, in its forecast.
More and more people are feeling more secure with their finances now that interest rates are a little more predictable. This creates confidence in the future, says William Lindquist.
For the first time, retail sales are expected to exceed SEK 100 billion in December.
Delicatessen
In the grocery trade, sales are expected to increase by 2 percent compared to last year in fixed prices, that is, the actual volume increase in trade excluding the effect of inflation.
More households are expected to spend a little extra money on Christmas food this year – households are more used to higher price levels while food prices have decreased.
Last Christmas I talked a bit about the “substitute Christmas” – perhaps replacing the organic Christmas ham with a cheaper alternative. This year we may be looking more at premium alternatives and delicacies on store shelves, there is not as much focus on price anymore.
“Pulled-up need”
The retail trade in rare goods – products such as furniture, toys and consumer electronics – is expected to make a comeback this year. After a 2 percent decline last year, HUI predicts growth of 3 percent in December.
These are often capital-intensive purchases and many consumers refrained from them last year when the money wasn't quite enough. So there is probably a fairly large and pent-up consumption need here, says Lindquist.
Children's Christmas gifts are usually a high priority - the toy trade had positive growth in 2023 and 2024 and continues to increase further this year.
The fashion trade and the electronics and white goods trade are not predicted to have as positive growth - despite this, no industry is expected to have any major losses, even the industries that are doing worse are expected to be in line with last year's Christmas trade.
The Swedish Trade Research Institute (HUI) annually releases a forecast of how Christmas shopping is expected to develop.
–Christmas sales refer to all sales that take place in December in both the grocery and non-durable goods trade.
–In December, sales take place for purposes other than Christmas, but that is still included in the forecast. Similarly, Christmas shopping takes place in November, but that is not included in the forecast figures.
In the forecast, HUI includes both physical retail and e-commerce.
HUI is a consulting company, which conducts analyses among other things. The company is owned by the trade organization Swedish Commerce.
Source: Swedish Trade Research Institute.
