1. Acute support to Ukraine
More ammunition, air defense, and drones worth up to SEK 220 billion are to be discussed at the EU countries' extraordinary summit next week, on March 6. However, Hungary is likely to be opposed, so much depends on whether a package can be put together in a way that cannot be blocked by Budapest. The EU leadership is open to alternative solutions, even with the help of countries outside the EU.
2. Quick money for defense
The EU Commission has already opened up for member states to disregard EU budget and debt rules to invest in their own defense. A formal proposal may come as early as next week, hoping for approval in March. The European Investment Bank is also being pressured to make it easier to lend to the arms industry.
3. Security guarantees for Ukraine
Nuclear powers France and the UK are leading talks on how Ukraine's security can be guaranteed by Europe, primarily in the air and at sea. Emmanuel Macron has already visited Donald Trump in Washington, who is now also receiving a visit from Keir Starmer. EU Foreign Minister Kaja Kallas is also in the USA for various meetings. Another form of guarantee goes via EU membership for Ukraine – but the road ahead is still long.
4. Gathering international support
Last week, the EU Commission President was in the West Indies and the Foreign Minister was in Africa. On Friday, the entire Commission is traveling to India. Much of it is about tying up as many others as possible behind the idea that not everything should be decided by a few superpowers. The EU is already closely coordinating with the UK, where several EU leaders will travel for a meeting on Sunday, following Starmer's visit to the USA.
5. Defense funds in the long term
A joint EU loan, similar to the one taken out after the coronavirus pandemic, is on many countries' wish list. Much depends on what Germany's new government will say. A concrete proposal from the EU Commission is likely to be delayed at least until after they have presented their white paper on defense on March 19. But the battle is likely to be fierce about how it will be paid for.
