Jon Arnell, investment manager at von Euler & Partners, describes the currency trend as unusually tricky when savings are to be invested. Currently, the dollar is trading at around 9.29 kronor, the lowest level since the beginning of 2022.
This means that small investors who have chosen to buy not only US funds but also global funds where US stocks are overrepresented, will see how the value is affected by the dollar's weakening.
We usually don't have such large "swings", we have been used to a weak krona and benefited from the strong dollar, says Jon Arnell to TT.
To further complicate matters, the New York stock exchanges have performed strongly at the same time. The broad S&P 500 index, for example, is up 12 percent and the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite index almost 15 percent. This can be compared to a modest increase of just over 3 percent for the Stockholm stock exchange.
Strong increases
The fact that tech giants such as Nvidia, up 28 percent this year, and Microsoft (up 21 percent) have performed so strongly means that these companies will have an even greater weight in, for example, index funds. This is something to keep in mind, points out Jon Arnell.
Now, large tech companies have done relatively well and the concentration in the American market is high, and this also applies to global indexes. Then you would rather have a broader exposure, or move down to smaller American companies to spread the risks, he says.
At the same time, Jon Arnell sees reasons for continued exposure to American stocks, even though he, like many others, makes the assessment that the dollar will weaken further. This motivates Jon Arnell based on, among other things, two factors:
Partly because the American central bank is expected to implement several interest rate cuts, most likely already at Wednesday's interest rate decision.
Trump's next move
Partly due to President Donald Trump's upcoming policy.
Even if we see an American weakening economically, you have against this that Trump is heading towards the mid-term elections. He does not have strong popularity figures now and will need to do something, we can expect further stimulus measures.
What is then the biggest mistake small investors can make?
It's just that you want to leave a market. It's the big swings you should avoid and not be so definitive in your actions. If you continue to monthly save, you will buy in at good levels.
